Week Ahead on Wall Street: The Fog of Political War

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

The government shutdown continues this week and there’s little sign of a near-term resolution. With betting markets expecting it to drag on for weeks, investors will need to continue navigating through an economic data fog. Two important sources of clarity will help pierce through the cloud, however.

First and foremost: Though most government data is on hold during the shutdown, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a critical exception. Due to its importance in calculating annual cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security benefits, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced it’ll be releasing the report on Friday. Already the most tracked by market participants, this report is even more important while investors are making due without other economic data.

And we can’t forget about corporate America. The pace of third-quarter earnings reports picks up significantly this week, with a host of companies from various sectors set to share their results. These reports will provide a real-time, bottom-up perspective on the health of the economy, straight from those who are on the business front lines.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Most releases involving government data will not be released while the shutdown is ongoing.

Monday

• September Leading Economic Index: This is an index composed of various economic indicators that have historically led changes in the broader economy.
• Earnings: Steel Dynamics (STLD), W R Berkley (WRB)

Tuesday

• October Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Philadelphia Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Earnings: Chubb (CB), Capital One Financial (COF), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Danaher (DHR), Equifax (EFX), Elevance Health (ELV), EQT (EQT), General Electric (GE), General Motors (GM), Genuine Parts (GPC), Halliburton (HAL), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Coca-Cola (KO), Lockheed Martin (LMT), 3M (MMM), Nasdaq (NDAQ), Netflix (NFLX), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Omnicom Group (OMC), PACCAR (PCAR), PulteGroup (PHM), Philip Morris International (PM), Pentair (PNR), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), Texas Instruments (TXN)

Wednesday

• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Earnings: Amphenol (APH), Avery Dennison (AVY), Boston Scientific (BSX), Crown Castle International (CCI), CME Group (CME), FirstEnergy (FE), Globe Life (GL), Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT), International Business Machines (IBM), Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Lennox International (LII), Lam Research (LRCX), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Moody’s (MCO), Molina Healthcare (MOH), Northern Trust (NTRS), NVR (NVR), O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY), Packaging of America (PKG), Raymond James Financial (RJF), AT&T (T), Teledyne Technologies (TDY), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Tesla (TSLA), United Rentals (URI), Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (WAB)

Thursday

• September Chicago Fed National Activity Index: This is a monthly index put together that incorporates 85 indicators from four categories: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories. 
• September Existing Home Sales: Most home transactions in any given month tend to come from the existing market, and as a result set the tone for the broader housing market. 
• October Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Kansas City Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits.
  • Earnings: Allegion (ALLE), Ameriprise Financial (AMP), Baker Hughes (BKR), Blackstone Group LP (BX), CBRE Group (CBRE), CenterPoint Energy (CNP), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Digital Realty Trust (DLR), Physicians Realty Trust (DOC), Dover (DOV), Dow Inc (DOW), Ford (F), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), GE Vernova (GEV), Hasbro (HAS), Honeywell International (HON), Intel (INTC), Mohawk Industries (MHK), Newmont Mining (NEM), Norfolk Southern (NSC), PG&E (PCG), Pool (POOL), Roper Technologies (ROP), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), Textron (TXT), Union Pacific (UNP), Valero Energy (VLO), VeriSign (VRSN), West Pharmaceutical Services (WST)

Friday

• September Consumer Price Index: The CPI is one of the most popular indicators for tracking consumer price trends and is a marquee release for market watchers. 
• October S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment. 
• September New Home Sales: While only a minority of home transactions in any given month come from new constructions, these home prices tend to be more cyclical and give insight into developing trends. 
• October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory. 
• October Kansas City Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Kansas City Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Earnings: Edwards Lifesciences (EW), General Dynamics (GD), HCA Healthcare (HCA), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), Procter & Gamble (PG)

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