Week Ahead on Wall Street: From Shutdown to AI Takedown

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

With the long government shutdown behind us, the market can finally get its bearings. But the fog hasn’t fully lifted. As we head into the week, the major questions for investors have shifted from “When will this end?” to “What’s the damage, and what do we do now?”

Getting the economic reports that were delayed, especially some of the monthly jobs and inflation data, will finally give investors a real read on the economy’s health. That said, we may never learn everything: While the data for September will eventually be released, the shutdown disrupted some of the October data collection.

Meanwhile, this week we’ll pivot to what has been one of the most important earnings reports for several years now: results from Nvidia (NVDA). The company is at the center of the artificial intelligence revolution, making its results and guidance a powerful harbinger of what’s next for the market.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Note: This list includes all regularly scheduled reports, but most that involve government data may be delayed as the government reopens after the longest shutdown in history.

Monday

• November Empire State Manufacturing Activity: The New York Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Fedspeak: New York Fed President John WIlliams will deliver welcoming remarks at the regional Fed’s 2025 Governance and Culture Reform Conference. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will moderate a fireside chat with the CEO of Ecolab.

Tuesday

• October Import/Export Price Indexes: These indexes track the changes in the prices of nonmilitary goods and services traded between the U.S. and the rest of the world. 
• November New York Services Activity: The New York Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook. 
• October Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The industrial sector accounts for much of the cyclical swings in economic activity. 
• November NAHB Housing Market Index: This index tracks how homebuilders feel about the current and future state of the single-family housing market.
• Earnings: Home Depot (HD), Medtronic (MDT)

Wednesday

• October Building Permits and Housing Starts: Construction data is a leading indicator of economic activity. 
• FOMC Meeting Minutes: The Federal Reserve releases detailed notes of every FOMC meeting three weeks after their conclusion. Investors often look for more information on Fed officials’ views for hints on the outlook for interest rates and the economy.
• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Fedspeak: New York Fed President John Williams will deliver welcoming remarks for the regional Fed event Making Missing Markets: Connecting Communities and Capital.
• Earnings: Lowe’s Companies (LOW), NVIDIA (NVDA), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Target (TGT), TJX Companies (TJX), Williams-Sonoma (WSM)

Thursday

• November Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Philadelphia Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook. 
• October Leading Economic Index: This is an index composed of various economic indicators that have historically led changes in the broader economy. 
• October Existing Home Sales: Most home transactions in any given month tend to come from the existing market, and as a result set the tone for the broader housing market. 
• November Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Kansas City Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits.
• Fedspeak: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will give opening remarks at the regional Fed’s 2025 Financial Stability Conference. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated discussion at the CFA Society of Indianapolis’ annual luncheon. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will discuss the economic outlook at the regional Fed’s 80th Annual Field Meeting Capstone. 
• Earnings: Copart (CPRT), Intuit (INTU), Jacobs Engineering Group (J), Ross Stores (ROST), Walmart (WMT)

Friday

• November S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment. 
• November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory. 
• November Kansas City Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Kansas City Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Fedspeak: Williams will deliver a keynote speech at the Central Bank of Chile’s annual conference. Dallas Fed President will participate in a panel discussion on economic uncertainty and the design and conduct of monetary policy.

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