Inflation, Inflation, Inflation

Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

At a Glance

• The news: The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) lands on Tuesday morning, followed by wholesale inflation via the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday.

• The context: Gas and diesel prices have stayed high amid the war in Iran. At the same time, Treasury yields and interest rate expectations have declined over the last two weeks amid a selloff in AI infrastructure and tech stocks. 

As the midterm election dust settles, Wall Street is shifting its gaze back to an old friend: Inflation. Both the Consumer and Producer Price Indices drop this week.

Tuesday’s CPI report won’t be your garden-variety release, however. Because the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not release year-over-year figures due to the government shutdown, there will be less annual comparison data for investors to focus on.

As a result, the month-over-month (m/m) data will be the primary numbers available for market participants to parse through, with the top investor concern likely being whether high energy costs are seeping into the broader supply chain and core CPI.

For now, traders have eased up on their bets for a rate hike at the coming Federal Reserve meeting in December. The idea is that they might give it another month or two to let the market do its work for it: If stock prices keep falling and an enduring peace deal with Iran is reached, maybe the economy and inflation will slow without the need for Fed action.

On the Docket

Monday

• 10:00am ET | September Wholesale Inventories & Sales: Wholesalers and retailers often operate as intermediaries for the sale of manufactured products, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.  
• 11:00am ET | October New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: This is a measure of peoples’ expectations for inflation, jobs prospects, earnings growth, and more.
• Fedspeak: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated Q&A at a Leadership Greater Chicago event. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will speak at a Greater Greer Chamber of Commerce event, followed by audience Q&A.
• Earnings
  • Large & Mid-Caps: KKR & Co (KKR), Constellation Energy Co (CEG), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Ferguson PLC (FERG), Skydance (SKYD), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), NRG Energy (NRG)
    
    

Tuesday

• 6:00am ET | October NFIB Small Business Optimism: This measures how small business owners feel about current and future economic conditions. 
• 8:15am ET | ADP Weekly Employment Change: This survey offers insight into weekly private sector employment trends. 
• 8:30am ET | October Consumer Price Index: The CPI is one of the most popular indicators for tracking consumer price trends and is a marquee release for market watchers.
• Fedspeak: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will deliver a keynote address at a conference concerning factors relevant to the Bank of England’s monetary policy. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will take part in a fireside chat hosted by the Dallas Fed on the economy and the energy sector, followed by Q&A. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will discuss the economic outlook at an event hosted by the regional Fed.
• Earnings
  • Large & Mid-Caps: TransDigm Group (TDG)

Wednesday

• Stock markets are open, while bond markets are closed for Veterans Day.
• 7:00am ET | Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Earnings
  • Large & Mid-Caps: Vylor (VYLR)

Thursday

• 8:30am ET | Weekly Jobless Claims: This high-frequency labor market data gives insight into initial and continuing filings for unemployment benefits. 
• 10:00am ET | October Existing Home Sales: Most home transactions in any given month tend to come from the existing market, and as a result set the tone for the broader housing market. 
• 2:00pm ET | October Treasury Statement: This summarizes the U.S. federal government budget by tracking government revenues and expenditures.
• Fedspeak: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will participate in a moderated conversation with business students at the Ohio State University. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will take part in a moderated Q&A at Yahoo! Finance Invest 2026. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will give a keynote speech on economic policy in the age of AI at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. New York Fed President will participate in a panel discussion hosted by UC Berkeley.
• Earnings
  • Mega-Caps: Cisco (CSCO), Applied Materials (AMAT)

Friday

• 8:30am ET | October Producer Price Index: The PPI tracks price trends that producers face and is down significantly from its peak earlier in the cycle.
• Fedspeak: Daly will speak at the Outlook 2026 event hosted by the UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak at the UC San Diego Economics Roundtable.

Note: Companies with at least $200 billion in market capitalization are classified as “Mega-Caps,” while others are shown in the “Large & Mid-Caps” sections.

Disclaimer
SoFi Securities (Hong Kong) Limited and its affiliates (SoFi HK) may post or share information and materials from time to time. They should not be regarded as an offer, solicitation, invitation, advice, recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal with any investment instrument or product in any jurisdictions. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.
SoFi HK does not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information and will not be liable for any losses and/or damages in connection with the use of this information.
The information and materials may contain hyperlinks to other websites, we are not responsible for the content of any linked sites. The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi HK. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. The risk involved in using such hyperlinks shall be borne by the visitor and subject to any Terms of Use applicable to such access and use.
Any product, logos, brands, and other trademarks or images featured are the property of their respective trademark holders. These trademark holders are not affiliated with SoFi HK or its Affiliates. These trademark holders do not sponsor or endorse SoFi HK or any of its articles.
Without prior written approval of SoFi HK, the information/materials shall not be amended, duplicated, photocopied, transmitted, circulated, distributed or published in any manner, or be used for commercial or public purposes.
Crypto and Crypto ETF products are available only to members in eligible jurisdictions who have successfully completed the required assessments and maintain an appropriate risk profile.
This communication is not directed at, and is not intended for distribution to or use by, any person in the United Kingdom. It does not constitute a financial promotion for the purposes of Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. This material is not available to any UK Person. By accessing, viewing, or relying on this communication, you represent and warrant that you are not a UK Person and that you are not located in the United Kingdom.