Week Ahead on Wall Street: What Does the Fed Make of Things?

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

This week all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s outlook on interest rates. 

At a Glance

• The news: The Federal Reserve’s two-day March meeting culminates on Wednesday. In addition to the interest rate announcement and press conference, we’ll get updated economic projections.
• The context: The central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged rather than lower them. There’s more uncertainty about the economy now that oil prices are spiking and there are new mixed signals about the health of the job market. 
• Your move: Pay close attention to the Fed’s projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s tone at the press conference. Any signal that rate cuts are completely off the table for the year could trigger market volatility, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors like tech and real estate.

Coming into the year, markets were pricing in multiple interest rate cuts. However, the Iranian conflict has sparked a surge in oil and gas prices, as well transportation and fertilizer costs. This could reignite the price pressures the Fed has worked so hard to extinguish, adding fuel to inflation that’s already been tracking higher than expected.

Because of this shifting backdrop, the Fed’s latest projections will be heavily scrutinized. No one expects the Fed to cut rates at this meeting, but if the latest median projection shows fewer — or even zero — rate cuts in 2026, it would cement what markets have already started assuming: that rates will stay higher-for-longer. 

Chair Powell’s post-meeting press conference will also be a key focus. Investors will be hanging on his every word, looking for clues on how Fed officials view the war and what they would need to see before feeling comfortable lowering rates. If Powell takes a cautious or hawkish tone, emphasizing that the fight against inflation is far from over, expect some choppy waters ahead. Both stocks and bonds could see volatility as investors fully digest a prolonged period of elevated rates.

On the Docket

Monday

• March Empire State Manufacturing Activity: The New York Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook. 
• February Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The industrial sector accounts for much of the cyclical swings in economic activity.
• March NAHB Housing Market Index: This index tracks how homebuilders feel about the current and future state of the single-family housing market.
• Earnings: Dollar Tree (DLTR)

Tuesday

• March New York Services Activity: The New York Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook. 
• February Leading Economic Index: This is an index composed of various economic indicators that have historically led changes in the broader economy.
• Earnings: Lululemon Athletica (LULU)

Wednesday

• February Producer Price Index: The PPI tracks price trends that producers face and is down significantly from its peak earlier in the cycle. 
• January Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators. 
• FOMC Interest Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve will announce any changes to monetary policy after the conclusion of its two-day FOMC meeting, in addition to providing commentary on the economy. It’s one of eight regularly scheduled meetings per year.
• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Earnings: General Mills (GIS), Jabil (JBL), Micron Technology (MU), Williams-Sonoma (WSM)

Thursday

• March Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Philadelphia Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook. 
• January New Home Sales: While only a minority of home transactions in any given month come from new constructions, these home prices tend to be more cyclical and give insight into developing trends. 
• January Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers often operate as an intermediary between manufacturers and retailers, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.
• Earnings: Accenture (ACN), Darden Restaurants (DRI), FedEx (FDX)

Friday

• January Personal Income and Spending: These numbers give insight into how Americans are doing, which is important since consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic growth in the United States. 
• January Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: The Fed targets this inflation measure for its price stability mandate and believes PCE to be the best measure of consumers’ spending habits. 
• January Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators.
• 4Q GDP Second Estimate: The primary measure of economic activity in the United States, which is measured as total expenditure on a country’s goods and services. 
• March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory. 
• January Job Openings: A key measure of business demand for labor is the number of job openings, since reducing openings is easier and preferable to layoffs.
• Earnings: Carnival (CCL)

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