Week Ahead on Wall Street: Trick or Treat, Miss or Beat

Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

The government is still shut down, and that means that investors continue to fly partially blind without much of the economic data they normally rely on. Are there any skeletons in the economy’s closet? For now, those answers mostly elude us. (Though September’s Consumer Price Index, one of the few metrics we’ve gotten since the shutdown, rose less than expected, increasing  0.3% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday.) Nevertheless, the world of investing continues spinning, and arguably the biggest week of the third-quarter earnings season is here.

The spotlight will be firmly on the mega-cap technology and consumer giants. We’re set to hear from Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT). These companies account for about a quarter of the market capitalization of the entire S&P 500, meaning their performance can influence the direction of the entire market. But beyond them, 169 other companies within the index — representing an additional quarter of the S&P 500’s market cap — will be reporting this week.

Their earnings could influence more than their own stock prices, too. These companies provide a window into the health of the entire economy through insights on cloud business spending, the advertising market, and broader consumer demand. Oh, and we’ll get their latest read on the artificial intelligence revolution.

So far, this earnings season has been more treat than trick, but a spooky surprise is always possible.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Most releases involving government data will not be released while the shutdown is ongoing.

Monday

• September Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators. 
• October Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Earnings: Arch Capital Group (ACGL), Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE), Brown & Brown (BRO), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Cincinnati Financial (CINF), F5 Networks (FFIV), Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Nucor (NUE), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Principal Financial Group (PFG), PerkinElmer (RVTY), Universal Health Services (UHS), Welltower (WELL), Waste Management (WM)

Tuesday

• August FHFA House Price Index: This is a broad measure of single-family house prices released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. 
• October Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Richmond Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook. 
• October Richmond Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Richmond Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook. 
• October Conference Board Consumer Confidence: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on job availability and the state of the labor market. 
• October Dallas Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Earnings: American Tower (AMT), A O Smith (AOS), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Boston Properties (BXP), Carrier Global Corp (CARR), CoStar Group (CSGP), DR Horton (DHI), Electronic Arts (EA), Ecolab (ECL), Edison International (EIX), Equity Residential (EQR), Expand Energy Corporation (EXE), Corning (GLW), Hubbell (HUBB), Incyte (INCY), IQVIA Holdings (IQV), Invesco (IVZ), Laboratory of America Holdings (LH), Mondelez International (MDLZ), MSCI (MSCI), NextEra Energy (NEE), ONEOK (OKE), PPG Industries (PPG), PayPal (PYPL), Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), Regency Centers (REG), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Seagate Technologies (STX), Sysco (SYY), Teradyne (TER), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), United Parcel Service (UPS), Visa (V), Veralto Corporation (VLTO), Xylem (XYL), Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)

Wednesday

• September Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers often operate as an intermediary between manufacturers and retailers, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain. 
• September Wholesale and Retail Inventories: Wholesalers and retailers often operate as intermediaries for the sale of manufactured products, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain. 
• FOMC Interest Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve will announce any changes to monetary policy after the conclusion of its two-day FOMC meeting, in addition to providing commentary on the economy. It’s one of eight regularly scheduled meetings per year.
• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Earnings: Automatic Data Processing (ADP), Align Technology (ALGN), AvalonBay Communities (AVB), American Water Works (AWK), Boeing (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Centene (CNC), Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH), CVS Health (CVS), Dayforce Inc (DAY), DaVita (DVA), eBay (EBAY), Everest RE Group (EG), Equinix (EQIX), Essex Property Trust (ESS), Entergy (ETR), Extra Space Storage (EXR), Fiserv (FI), Fortive (FTV), GE HealthCare Technologies Inc (GEHC), Generac Holdings (GNRC), Alphabet (Non-Voting Shares) (GOOG), Alphabet (GOOGL), Garmin (GRMN), IDEX (IEX), Invitation Homes (INVH), Kraft Heinz (KHC), KLA-Tencor (KLAC), Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA), Masco (MAS), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), MGM Resorts International (MGM), Microsoft (MSFT), NiSource (NI), ServiceNow (NOW), Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), Otis Worldwide (OTIS), Prudential Financial (PRU), Public Storage (PSA), Phillips 66 (PSX), Rollins (ROL), Starbucks (SBUX), Smurfit WestRock (SW), TE Connectivity (TEL), Tyler Technologies (TYL), UDR (UDR), Verisk Analytics (VRSK), Ventas (VTR), Verizon (VZ)

Thursday

• 3Q GDP First Estimate: The primary measure of economic activity in the United States, which is measured as total expenditure on a country’s goods and services.
• Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits.
• Fedspeak: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will deliver welcoming remarks at a bank funding conference hosted by the regional Fed bank.
• Earnings: Apple (AAPL), Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG), Ametek (AME), Ameriprise Financial (AMP), Amazon (AMZN), Aptiv (APTV), Baxter International (BAX), Biogen (BIIB), Builders FirstSource (BLDR), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Cardinal Health (CAH), Cigna (CI), Comcast (CMCSA), CMS Energy (CMS), Coinbase (COIN), DTE Energy (DTE), DexCom (DXCM), Estee Lauder Companies (EL), EMCOR Group (EME), Erie Indemnity (ERIE), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), Fox Class B (FOX), Twenty-First Century Fox Class A (FOXA), First Solar (FSLR), GoDaddy (GDDY), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), Hershey (HSY), Howmet Aerospace (HWM), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), International Paper (IP), Ingersoll Rand (IR), Kellogg (K), Kimco Realty (KIM), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), L3Harris Technologies (LHX), LKQ (LKQ), Eli Lilly (LLY), Mastercard (MA), Altria Group (MO), Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR), Merck & Co (MRK), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Quanta Services (PWR), ResMed (RMD), Republic Services (RSG), Southern Company (SO), S&P Global (SPGI), Stryker (SYK), Trane Technologies (TT), Vici Properties (VICI), Vulcan Materials (VMC), Western Digital (WDC), WEC Energy Group (WEC), Willis Towers Watson Public (WTW), Weyerhaeuser (WY), Xcel Energy (XEL)

Friday

• September Personal Income and Spending: These numbers give insight into how Americans are doing, which is important since consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic growth in the United States. 
• September Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: The Fed targets this inflation measure for its price stability mandate and believes PCE to be the best measure of consumers’ spending habits. 
• 3Q Employment Cost Index: This is the most comprehensive measure of worker compensation, including wages, bonuses, benefits and more. 
• October Chicago Business Barometer: The barometer provides information on U.S. economic activity and business conditions, consisting of seven activity indicators and three buying policy indicators.
• Fedspeak: Logan will deliver opening remarks at the bank funding conference. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will participate in a fireside chat at the bank funding conference.
• Earnings: AbbVie (ABBV), Aon Plc (AON), Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), Church & Dwight (CHD), Charter Communications (CHTR), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Chevron (CVX), Dominion Energy (D), Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT), WW Grainger (GWW), Linde PLC (LIN), LyondellBasell Industries (LYB), T Rowe Price Group (TROW), Exxon Mobil (XOM)

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