Week Ahead on Wall Street: The Fed’s Meeting Minutes

Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

With the government shutdown delaying the release of the September employment report, investors’ attention will likely turn to one of the few sources of insight still available right now: the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s pivotal September meeting. 

Held against a politically charged backdrop, that meeting culminated in the first interest rate cut since December. Though the outcome is old news, the minutes – scheduled to come out Wednesday – should provide a detailed summary of the debate policymakers had behind-the-scenes. 

Of primary interest will be the depth of discussion on the state of the labor market. Given the lack of available data, any signs of deterioration appearing three weeks ago will be of particular value. As an aside, while there’s unlikely to be any direct mention of politics, the minutes will probably also be scrutinized for any sign of the intense political pressure the central bank faces from the president, who has been seeking more aggressive interest rate cuts.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

• Earnings: Constellation Brands (STZ)

Tuesday

• August Trade Balance: Trade, made up of exports and imports, is an important driver of economic activity. 
• September New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: This is a measure of peoples’ expectations for inflation, jobs prospects, earnings growth, and more. 
• August Consumer Credit: Borrowing activity gives insight into broader economic activity.
• Fedspeak: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will participate in a discussion and Q&A with the Fisk University Board of Trustees chair. Fed Governor Miran will participate in a fireside chat as part of the MFA’s 2025 Policy Outlook. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will discuss AI and the economy at the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s 2025 North Star Summit.
• Earnings: McCormick & Company (MKC)

Wednesday

• FOMC Meeting Minutes: The Federal Reserve releases detailed notes of every FOMC meeting three weeks after their conclusion. Investors often look for more information on Fed officials’ views for hints on the outlook for interest rates and the economy.
• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Fedspeak: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will give welcome remarks at the 2025 Community Banking Research conference. Fed Governor Michael Barr will deliver keynote remarks at the conference. Kashkari will speak at the Center For Indian Country Development’s 10-year anniversary event. Kashkari will speak with Senator Tina Smith at a virtual fireside chat.

Thursday

• August Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers often operate as an intermediary between manufacturers and retailers, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.
• Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits.
• Fedspeak: Kashkari will moderate a conversation with Barr at the Economic Club of Minnesota. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will take part in a moderated conversation on technology and the economy.
• Earnings: Delta Air Lines (DAL), PepsiCo (PEP)

Friday

• October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory. 
• September Treasury Statement: This summarizes the U.S. federal government budget by tracking government revenues and expenditures.
• Fedspeak: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will give welcome remarks at the regional bank’s Community Bankers Symposium. Musalem will take part in a fireside chat on the economy and monetary policy.

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