Week Ahead on Wall Street: The Fed Meets

Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

The stage is set for the main event of the month — the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting. 

The market has already fully priced in a 25-basis-point (0.25%) cut to the Fed’s benchmark interest rate. However, a small but notable segment of the market is holding out for a more aggressive 50 basis points, which could spark significant volatility if it were to materialize.

For most investors, however, the federal funds rate itself won’t be the whole story. The Fed will also release its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), providing updated expectations for economic growth, unemployment, and inflation. Any significant revisions to these projections will give investors a clear sense of how the central bank’s economic outlook has changed.

The SEP also includes the anonymous “dot plot,” which maps out where each Fed official expects the fed funds rate to be at the end of this year and over the next few years. The market will be laser-focused on the median dot for the end of 2025. This will signal whether the Fed plans to lower rates slowly or resume a deeper easing cycle.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

• September Empire State Manufacturing Activity: The New York Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.

Tuesday

• August Retail Sales: This measures spending at retail stores and is a key indicator of consumer demand. 
• September New York Services Activity: The New York Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook. 
• August Import/Export Price Indexes: These indexes track the changes in the prices of nonmilitary goods and services traded between the U.S. and the rest of the world.
•  August Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The industrial sector accounts for much of the cyclical swings in economic activity. 
• September NAHB Housing Market Index: This index tracks how homebuilders feel about the current and future state of the single-family housing market.

Wednesday

• August Building Permits and Housing Starts: Construction data is a leading indicator of economic activity.
• FOMC Interest Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve will announce any changes to monetary policy after the conclusion of its two-day FOMC meeting, in addition to providing commentary on the economy. It’s one of eight regularly scheduled meetings per year.
• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Earnings: General Mills (GIS)

Thursday

• September Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Philadelphia Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook. 
• August Leading Economic Index: This is an index composed of various economic indicators that have historically led changes in the broader economy.
• Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits. Initial jobless claims have remained mostly steady, while continuing claims have increased of late.
• Earnings: Darden Restaurants (DRI), FactSet Research Systems (FDS), FedEx (FDX), Lennar (LEN)

Friday

• Nothing of note is scheduled.

Disclaimer
SoFi Securities (Hong Kong) Limited and its affiliates (SoFi HK) may post or share information and materials from time to time. They should not be regarded as an offer, solicitation, invitation, investment advice, recommendation to buy, sell or otherwise deal with any investment instrument or product in any jurisdictions. Keep in mind that investing involves risk, and past performance of an asset never guarantees future results or returns. It’s important for investors to consider their specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile before making an investment decision.
SoFi HK does not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information and will not be liable for any losses and/or damages in connection with the use of this information.
The information and materials may contain hyperlinks to other websites, we are not responsible for the content of any linked sites. The information and analysis provided through hyperlinks to third party websites, while believed to be accurate, cannot be guaranteed by SoFi HK. These links are provided for informational purposes and should not be viewed as an endorsement. The risk involved in using such hyperlinks shall be borne by the visitor and subject to any Terms of Use applicable to such access and use.
Any product, logos, brands, and other trademarks or images featured are the property of their respective trademark holders. These trademark holders are not affiliated with SoFi HK or its Affiliates. These trademark holders do not sponsor or endorse SoFi HK or any of its articles.
Without prior written approval of SoFi HK, the information/materials shall not be amended, duplicated, photocopied, transmitted, circulated, distributed or published in any manner, or be used for commercial or public purposes.