Week Ahead on Wall Street: More Unknown

Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

If this were a normal week, we’d be talking about the Friday jobs report, the state of the economy, and the possibility that the Federal Reserve won’t lower interest rates again in December, especially in light of Chair Jerome Powell’s comments last week. 

But it’s not a normal week. The government has officially been shut down for over a month now, leaving investors without much of the economic data they rely on. 

Still, we’re not without any signposts. 

First, the third-quarter earnings season continues. Though the peak of the mega-cap tech reports is behind us, 136 companies are still set to release their results this week, accounting for over 11% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. These reports remain a crucial source of insights into corporate health and any burgeoning trends. 

Second, with last week’s Fed meeting now in the rearview mirror, Fed officials are no longer in their blackout period. We can expect to hear from several policymakers this week, and any color they provide on what they are seeing in the economy will be a major focus for the market, especially in light of the two dissenting votes last week – one for a 50-basis-point cut and one for no cut at all. 

In short, uncertainty is high, and until a resolution in Washington reopens the government, the market backdrop will likely continue to be defined more by what we don’t know than what we do know.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

• October ISM Manufacturing PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across the manufacturing sector feel about the business environment.
•  September Construction Spending: Construction data is a leading indicator of business activity. 
• October Wards Total Vehicle Sales: Cars are a big ticket item for consumers, so underlying vehicle sales trends can help shine a light on demand for durable goods.
• Fedspeak: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will take part in a moderated conversation at Forum Club of the Palm Beaches, followed by Q&A. Fed Governor Lisa Cook will discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy at a Brookings Institution event.
• Earnings: Clorox (CLX), Coterra Energy Inc (CTRA), Eastman Chemical (EMN), Diamondback Energy (FANG), Hologic (HOLX), IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX), Loews (L), Realty Income (O), ON Semiconductor (ON), Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG), Palantir Technologies (PLTR), Pinnacle West Capital (PNW), SBA Communications (SBAC), Simon Property Group (SPG), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Williams Companies (WMB)

Tuesday

• September Trade Balance: Trade, made up of exports and imports, is an important driver of economic activity. 
• September Job Openings: A key measure of business demand for labor is the number of job openings, since reducing openings is easier and preferable to layoffs. 
• September Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators.
• Earnings: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), AES (AES), Aflac (AFL), American International Group (AIG), Assurant (AIZ), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Amgen (AMGN), Arista Networks (ANET), Apollo Global Management, Inc (APO), Axon Enterprise (AXON), Ball (BALL), Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR), CDW (CDW), Corteva (CTVA), Eversource Energy (ES), Eaton Corp (ETN), Exelon (EXC), Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), Global Payments (GPN), Henry Schein (HSIC), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), Gartner (IT), Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY), Leidos Holdings (LDOS), Live Nation Entertainment (LYV), Marriott International (MAR), Martin Marietta Materials (MLM), Mosaic (MOS), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Match Group (MTCH), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), Pfizer (PFE), Super Micro Computer (SMIC), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Molson Coors Brewing (TAP), Uber (UBER), Waters (WAT), YUM! Brands (YUM), Zoetis (ZTS)

Wednesday

• October ADP Employment Report: This survey, usually released a day or two before the official government jobs report, offers insight into private sector employment trends. 
• October S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment. 
• October ISM Services PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across different services industries feel about the business environment.
• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Earnings: Ameren (AEE), Albemarle (ALB), Allstate (ALL), Amcor PLC (AMCR), APA Corp (APA), AppLovin (APP), Atmos Energy (ATO), Bunge Global S.A. (BG), CF Industries Holdings (CF), AmerisourceBergen (COR), Corpay (CPAY), Charles River Laboratories International (CRL), DoorDash (DASH), Devon Energy (DVN), Emerson Electric Co (EMR), Fair Isaac (FICO), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS), Fortinet (FTNT), Robinhood (HOOD), Host Hotels & Resorts (HST), Humana (HUM), Iron Mountain (IRM), Johnson Controls International (JCI), McDonald’s (MCD), McKesson (MCK), MetLife (MET), Paycom Software (PAYC), PPL (PPL), PTC (PTC), Qualcomm (QCOM), Sempra Energy (SRE), STERIS (STE), Bio-Techne (TECH), TKO Group Holdings Inc (TKO), Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL), Targa Resources (TRGP), Trimble (TRMB), Zimmer Biomet Holdings (ZBH)

Thursday

• October Challenger Job Cuts: The firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas tracks the number of layoff announcements each month by sector. 
• 3Q P Productivity and Unit Labor Costs: These measures provide a breakdown of how productive workers were per hour of work and at what cost. 
• September Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers often operate as an intermediary between manufacturers and retailers, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.
• Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits.
• Fedspeak: New York Fed President John Williams will give a lecture at the Goethe University Institute for Monetary and FInancial Stability in Germany, followed by Q&A. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak at the Economic Club of New York. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will speak at the 2025 New Perspectives on Consumer Behavior in Credit and Payments Markets Conference. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will take part in a fireside chat on the economy and monetary policy.
• Earnings: Airbnb (ABNB), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), Air Products and Chemicals (APD), Becton Dickinson and Company (BDX), Cummins (CMI), ConocoPhillips (COP), Camden Property Trust (CPT), DuPont de Nemours (DD), Datadog (DDOG), Consolidated Edison (ED), EOG Resources (EOG), EPAM Systems (EPAM), Evergy (EVRG), Expedia Group (EXPE), NortonLifeLock (GEN), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE), Alliant Energy (LNT), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Moderna (MRNA), Mettler-Toledo International (MTD), NRG Energy (NRG), News (NWS), News (NWSA), Parker-Hannifin (PH), Insulet (PODD), Ralph Lauren (RL), Rockwell Automation (ROK), Solventum (SOLV), Tapestry (TPR), Trade Desk (TTD), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), Vistra Energy (VST), Viatris (VTRS), Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc (WBD), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Block, Inc. (XYZ)

Friday

• October Employment Situation Summary: This monthly blockbuster release from the Labor Department gives a comprehensive look at employment, wages, and hours worked in the previous month. 
• November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory. 
• October New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: This is a measure of peoples’ expectations for inflation, jobs prospects, earnings growth, and more. 
• September Consumer Credit: Borrowing activity gives insight into broader economic activity.
• Fedspeak: Williams will deliver a keynote speech at the 2025 European Central Bank Conference on Money Markets. 
• Earnings: Franklin Resources (BEN), Constellation Energy Co (CEG), Duke Energy (DUK), KKR & Co (KKR), Monster Beverage (MNST), TransDigm Group (TDG)

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