Week Ahead on Wall Street: Facts and Feelings

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

The Other Shoe Drops

This week, the focus is on how the latest tariff shocks are impacting inflation and consumer sentiment. 

The release of April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be the main event, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) and import/export price data will play a supporting role. Together these reports will provide the first comprehensive look at price trends since new tariffs were implemented.

Of particular importance for investors will be the extent of price hikes – and whether they are isolated to import-sensitive goods like cars, clothing, and pharmaceuticals or more widespread. Though consumer prices actually fell in March, expectations are for them to rise 0.3% m/m in April. Any significant deviation from consensus expectations could lead to market volatility.

We’ll also get a look at how consumers are feeling when the University of Michigan releases preliminary consumer sentiment for the month of May. Last month sentiment fell to its lowest point since July 2022, while year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to their highest since 1981. Feelings can influence behavior, and the impact of this sentiment could eventually transform into the factual hard data that catalyzes action from investors and the Federal Reserve.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

• April Treasury Statement: This summarizes the U.S. federal government budget by tracking government revenues and expenditures.
• Fedspeak: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will deliver a speech at the International Economic Symposium.
• Earnings: DaVita (DVA), Fox Class B (FOX), Twenty-First Century Fox Class A (FOXA), NRG Energy (NRG), Simon Property Group (SPG)

Tuesday

• April NFIB Small Business Optimism: This measures how small business owners feel about current and future economic conditions. 
• April Consumer Price Index: The CPI is one of the most popular indicators for tracking consumer price trends and is a marquee release for market watchers.

Wednesday

• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Fedspeak: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will participate in a fireside chat at a California Bankers Association event followed by Q&A.
• Earnings: Cisco (CSCO), STERIS (STE)

Thursday

• May Empire State Manufacturing Activity: The New York Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook. 
• April Retail Sales: This measures spending at retail stores and is a key indicator of consumer demand. 
• April Producer Price Index: The PPI tracks price trends that producers face and is down significantly from its peak earlier in the cycle. 
• May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Philadelphia Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook. 
• April Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The industrial sector accounts for much of the cyclical swings in economic activity. 
• May NAHB Housing Market Index: This index tracks how homebuilders feel about the current and future state of the single-family housing market.
• Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits. Jobless claims have continued to show a labor market that remains strong despite having cooled.
• Fedspeak: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give opening remarks at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, which will focus on the central bank’s monetary policy review.
• Earnings: Applied Materials (AMAT), Deere & Company (DE), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), Walmart (WMT)

Friday

• April Building Permits and Housing Starts: Construction data is a leading indicator of economic activity. 
• April Import/Export Price Indexes: These indexes track the changes in the prices of nonmilitary goods and services traded between the U.S. and the rest of the world. 
• May New York Services Activity: The New York Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook. 
• May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory.
• Fedspeak: San Francisco and Richmond Fed Presidents Mary Daly and Thomas Barkin will deliver commencement speeches.
• Earnings: Copart (CPRT)

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