The Jobs Report and More Earnings

Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

Fresh off last week’s Federal Reserve decision and mega-cap tech earning bonanza, the labor market gets an updated read.

At a Glance

• The news: The government will release the July employment report, and 139 companies in the S&P 500 will report quarterly earnings results.
• The context: The Fed held benchmark rates steady last week in a 9-3 vote, with Chairman Kevin Warsh noting that inflation remains a bigger concern than employment. How the jobs data looks Friday will help determine if the Fed can focus squarely on inflation or if it will also have to address risks in the labor market.
• Your move: If the labor market looks healthy, investors may fully price in an interest rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting, pushing Treasury yields and mortgage rates higher and weighing on interest rate-sensitive assets such as growth stocks, REITs and gold. On the other hand, weak labor data could have the opposite effect.

Without question, the main event this week comes Friday when the July employment report drops. Nonfarm payroll growth, wage growth, and the unemployment rate will all be sliced and diced by economists and investors. Labor data has generally improved this year, so another positive report could solidify expectations for a rate hike next meeting.

There are some other data drops coming before Friday’s main event, however. The July ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs will shed light on new order activity, supply chain delivery times, and price pressures facing businesses, while the JOLTS data will provide some insight on job openings, hiring, and quits rates.

Of course, the second-quarter earnings season is ongoing throughout all of this. Most of the tech behemoths have reported, but 139 companies accounting for about 15% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization are lined up this week. From semiconductor players shining a light on AI demand to industrial and consumer bellwethers offering a read on the rest of the economy, there remains a lot to digest.

On the Docket

Monday

• 10:00am ET | July ISM Manufacturing PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across the manufacturing sector feel about the business environment. 
• 10:00am ET | June Construction Spending: Construction data is a leading indicator of business activity.
• 5:00pm ET | July Total Vehicle Sales: Cars are a big ticket item for consumers, so underlying vehicle sales trends can help shine a light on demand for durable goods. 
• Earnings
  • Mega-Caps: Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
  • Large & Mid-Caps: Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), Marriott International (MAR), Williams Companies (WMB), ONEOK (OKE), Diamondback Energy (FANG), TKO Group Holdings (TKO), ON Semiconductor (ON), EchoStar (ECHO), Loews (L), Tyson Foods (TSN), SBA Communications (SBAC), Clorox (CLX), Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE)

Tuesday

• 8:30am ET | June Trade Balance: Trade, made up of exports and imports, is an important driver of economic activity. 
• 10:00am ET | June Job Openings: A key measure of business demand for labor is the number of job openings, since reducing openings is easier and preferable to layoffs. 
• 10:00am ET | June Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators.
• Earnings
  • Mega-Caps: SpaceX (SPCX), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Caterpillar (CAT), Merck & Co (MRK), Arista Networks (ANET), Amgen (AMGN)
  • Large & Mid-Caps: McDonald’s (MCD), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Pfizer (PFE), Duke Energy (DUK), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Cummins (CMI), Emerson Electric Co (EMR), TransDigm Group (TDG), Apollo Global Management, Inc (APO), WW Grainger (GWW), Ametek (AME), Rockwell Automation (ROK), Devon Energy (DVN), IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX), Prudential Financial (PRU), Sysco (SYY), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG), Waters (WAT), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), NRG Energy (NRG), Qnity Electronics (Q), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS), Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF), DuPont de Nemours (DD), Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR), Ball (BALL), Kimco Realty (KIM), Jacobs Solutions (J), DaVita (DVA), Healthpeak Properties (DOC), Leidos Holdings (LDOS), Assurant (AIZ), Zebra Technologies (ZBRA), Revvity (RVTY), Pinnacle West Capital (PNW), Aptiv (APTV), Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Gartner (IT), Henry Schein (HSIC), Paramount Skydance (PSKY), Mosaic (MOS)

Wednesday

• 7:00am ET | Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market. 
• 8:15am ET | July ADP Monthly Employment Report: This survey, usually released a day or two before the official government jobs report, offers insight into private sector employment trends. 
• 9:45am ET | July S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment. 
• 10:00am ET | July ISM Services PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across different services industries feel about the business environment.
• Earnings
  • Mega-Caps: Eli Lilly (LLY)
  • Large & Mid-Caps: Western Digital (WDC), Sandisk Corporation (SNDK), Disney (DIS), Uber (UBER), AppLovin (APP), CVS Health (CVS), McKesson (MCK), Phillips 66 (PSX), DoorDash (DASH), EOG Resources (EOG), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Allstate (ALL), Honeywell Aerospace (HONA), MetLife (MET), AmerisourceBergen (COR), Realty Income (O), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), eBay (EBAY), Block, Inc. (XYZ), Axon Enterprise (AXON), Iron Mountain (IRM), Expedia Group (EXPE), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Atmos Energy (ATO), Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL), Corpay (CPAY), Global Payments (GPN), STERIS (STE), NiSource (NI), CF Industries Holdings (CF), CDW (CDW), Zimmer Biomet Holdings (ZBH), Host Hotels & Resorts (HST), News Corp (NWS), Solventum (SOLV), Albemarle (ALB), APA Corp (APA), Insulet (PODD), Charles River Laboratories International (CRL)

Thursday

• 5:30am ET | July Challenger Job Cuts: The firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas tracks the number of layoff announcements each month by sector. 
• 8:30am ET | 2Q Productivity and Unit Labor Costs: These measures provide a breakdown of how productive workers were per hour of work and at what cost. 
• 8:30am ET | Weekly Jobless Claims: This high-frequency labor market data gives insight into initial and continuing filings for unemployment benefits.
• 10:00am ET | June Wholesale Inventories: Wholesalers and retailers often operate as intermediaries for the sale of manufactured products, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.
• Fedspeak: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will give a speech and then take part in a moderated discussion at the Center for Public Policy Debate, followed by Q&A.
• Earnings
  • Large & Mid-Caps: ConocoPhillips (COP), Parker-Hannifin (PH), Howmet Aerospace (HWM), Constellation Energy Co (CEG), Datadog (DDOG), Monster Beverage (MNST), Airbnb (ABNB), Republic Services (RSG), Aflac (AFL), Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc (WBD), Sempra Energy (SRE), Targa Resources (TRGP), Becton Dickinson and Company (BDX), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), American International Group (AIG), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Consolidated Edison (ED), Kenvue Inc. (KVUE), Zoetis (ZTS), ResMed (RMD), Fiserv (FISV), Fox Class B (FOX), Twenty-First Century Fox Class A (FOXA), Ralph Lauren (RL), Viatris (VTRS), Evergy (EVRG), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), NortonLifeLock (GEN), Trimble (TRMB), Bio-Techne (TECH), Trade Desk (TTD), Molson Coors Brewing (TAP)

Friday

• 8:30am ET | July Employment Situation Summary: This monthly blockbuster release from the Labor Department gives a comprehensive look at employment, wages, and hours worked in the previous month. 
• 11:00am ET | July New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations: This is a measure of peoples’ expectations for inflation, jobs prospects, earnings growth, and more. 
• 3:00pm ET | June Consumer Credit: Borrowing activity gives insight into broader economic activity.
• Fedspeak: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin will participate in a fireside chat at an National Association for Business Economics event on the economy, leadership and the Federal Reserve.
• Earnings
  • Large & Mid-Caps: Vistra (VST), Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO), PPL (PPL)

Note: Companies with at least $200 billion in market capitalization are classified as “Mega-Caps,” while others are shown in the “Large & Mid-Caps” sections.

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