Week Ahead on Wall Street: Inside Warsh’s First Fed Meeting

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Swap your holiday sparklers for a magnifying glass. It’s time to dig into what went down at last month’s Fed Meeting.

At a Glance

• The news: The Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, providing a more detailed look at policymakers’ deliberations.
• The context: These minutes correspond with Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chairman, in which nine officials submitted projections expecting at least one rate hike through year-end. Given his past criticism of the central bank’s public communications and preference for less forward guidance, investors will be on the lookout for any changes to the release’s format while parsing through for any hints on what officials might do next.
• Your move: Pay close attention to any characterizations of the inflationary backdrop. If the minutes reveal a growing consensus that rate hikes are necessary, expect bond yields to climb and interest rate-sensitive parts of the market to suffer.

In a decision that surprised precisely no one, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at their Fed meeting last month. However, the June meeting was monumental nevertheless, as it marked Kevin Warsh’s debut as Chairman. Now, we get the minutes from that meeting, which should offer a much more nuanced, if not exact, view of the debates that took place behind closed doors.

Sometimes these minutes can be a snoozefest, but given it’ll be covering Warsh’s first meeting, there could be important bits of information tucked in the document. Have the contours of internal debate changed with new leadership? And will there be any specific discussion of his proposal to move away from forward guidance or his task forces? These will be important considerations for investors, as they gird themselves for higher interest rate volatility. 

Beyond the new dialect of Fedspeak we have to learn, the core issue remains inflation. Energy prices surged at the start of the conflict in the Middle East, but have now fallen precipitously. Did the FOMC think they would eventually have to raise interest rates to get inflation down, or would they be able to look through what might just be a temporary supply shock? Warsh’s messaging during the post-meeting presser was a tad hawkish but still pretty balanced — if the minutes suggest a more concrete stance, the bond market reaction could be swift.

On the Docket

Monday

• 9:45am ET | June S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment. 
• 10:00am ET | June ISM Services PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across different services industries feel about the business environment.
• Fedspeak: Fed Governor Christopher Waller, along with other global central bankers and economists, will participate in a policy panel on monetary policy transmission in a changing world.

Tuesday

• 8:15am ET | ADP Weekly Employment Change: This survey offers insight into weekly private sector employment trends. 
• 8:30am ET | May Trade Balance: Trade, made up of exports and imports, is an important driver of economic activity.

Wednesday

• 7:00am ET | Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• 10:00am ET | May Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers and retailers often operate as intermediaries for the sale of manufactured products, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.  
• 2:00pm ET | June FOMC Meeting Minutes: The Federal Reserve releases detailed notes of every FOMC meeting three weeks after their conclusion. Investors often look for more information on Fed officials’ views for hints on the outlook for interest rates and the economy. 
• 3:00pm ET | May Consumer Credit: Borrowing activity gives insight into broader economic activity.

Thursday

• 8:30am ET | Weekly Jobless Claims: This high-frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits.
• 10:00am ET | June Existing Home Sales: Most home transactions in any given month tend to come from the existing market, and as a result set the tone for the broader housing market.
• Fedspeak: New York Fed President John Williams will participate in a moderated discussion at the Future of Market Liquidity and Functioning, followed by Q&A. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will moderate a panel at the same event.
• Earnings: PepsiCo (PEP)

Friday

• Earnings: Delta Air Lines (DAL)

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