Week Ahead on Wall Street: Powell Plus the Tech Titans

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Get ready for what might be the most pivotal week of the first quarter.

Front and center is the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. The interest rate decision itself isn’t a close call – market pricing indicates only 5% odds of a rate cut – but investors will get an update on the economy and hear from Chair Jerome Powell, who is under criminal investigation over the alleged mismanagement of Fed building renovations. 

Adding to this backdrop: The Supreme Court appears likely to allow Fed Governor Lisa Cook to remain on the Board, a development that could ease concerns that the central bank is losing its independence. 

(Increased uncertainty around the independence of the Fed often manifests itself in the form of higher risk premiums in the Treasury market, and as a result higher mortgage rates.) 

And not to be overshadowed, investors will also get this year’s first meaningful update on the trajectory for AI when Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA) report quarterly results. In a market that has been heavily reliant on the theme (though less so of late), these reports are high-stakes and have the potential to either keep the party going, or pop what some say is a market bubble.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

• November Chicago Fed National Activity Index: This is a monthly index put together that incorporates 85 indicators from four categories: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories. 
• November Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators. 
• January Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Earnings: Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE), Brown & Brown (BRO), Nucor (NUE), Steel Dynamics (STLD), W R Berkley (WRB)

Tuesday

• November FHFA House Price Index: This is a broad measure of single-family house prices released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. 
• January Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Richmond Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook. 
• January Richmond Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Richmond Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook. 
• January Conference Board Consumer Confidence: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on job availability and the state of the labor market. 
• January Dallas Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Earnings: Boeing (BA), Boston Properties (BXP), F5 Networks (FFIV), General Motors (GM), HCA Healthcare (HCA), Invesco (IVZ), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), NextEra Energy (NEE), Northrop Grumman (NOC), PACCAR (PCAR), Packaging of America (PKG), PPG Industries (PPG), Roper Technologies (ROP), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), Seagate Technologies (STX), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Sysco (SYY), Texas Instruments (TXN), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Union Pacific (UNP), United Parcel Service (UPS)

Wednesday

• FOMC Interest Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve will announce any changes to monetary policy after the conclusion of its two-day FOMC meeting, in addition to providing commentary on the economy. It’s one of eight regularly scheduled meetings per year.
• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Earnings: Automatic Data Processing (ADP), Amphenol (APH), CH Robinson Worldwide (CHRW), Danaher (DHR), Elevance Health (ELV), Fair Isaac (FICO), General Dynamics (GD), GE Vernova (GEV), Corning (GLW), International Business Machines (IBM), Lennox International (LII), Lam Research (LRCX), Southwest Airlines (LUV), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), MSCI (MSCI), Microsoft (MSFT), ServiceNow (NOW), NVR (NVR), Otis Worldwide (OTIS), Raymond James Financial (RJF), Starbucks (SBUX), AT&T (T), Tesla (TSLA), Textron (TXT), United Rentals (URI), Waste Management (WM)

Thursday

• 3Q Productivity and Unit Labor Costs: These measures provide a breakdown of how productive workers were per hour of work and at what cost. 
• November Trade Balance: Trade, made up of exports and imports, is an important driver of economic activity. 
• November Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators. 
• November Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers often operate as an intermediary between manufacturers and retailers, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain.
• Earnings: Apple (AAPL), Arthur J Gallagher & Co (AJG), Ameriprise Financial (AMP), A O Smith (AOS), Blackstone Group LP (BX), Caterpillar (CAT), Comcast (CMCSA), Deckers Outdoor (DECK), Dover (DOV), Dow Inc (DOW), Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG), Hologic (HOLX), Honeywell International (HON), International Paper (IP), KLA-Tencor (KLAC), L3Harris Technologies (LHX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Mastercard (MA), Altria Group (MO), Marsh & McLennan Companies (MRSH), Nasdaq (NDAQ), Norfolk Southern (NSC), Progressive (PGR), Parker-Hannifin (PH), PulteGroup (PHM), Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL), ResMed (RMD), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Sandisk Corporation (SNDK), Stryker (SYK), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), Trane Technologies (TT), Visa (V), Valero Energy (VLO), Western Digital (WDC), Weyerhaeuser (WY)

Friday

• December Producer Price Index: The PPI tracks price trends that producers face and is down significantly from its peak earlier in the cycle. 
• January Chicago Business Barometer: The barometer provides information on U.S. economic activity and business conditions, consisting of seven activity indicators and three buying policy indicators
• Fedspeak: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will deliver a speech on the economy and monetary policy.
• Earnings: Aon Plc (AON), Air Products and Chemicals (APD), American Express (AXP), Franklin Resources (BEN), Church & Dwight (CHD), Charter Communications (CHTR), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Chevron (CVX), LyondellBasell Industries (LYB), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), Verizon (VZ), Exxon Mobil (XOM)

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