Week Ahead on Wall Street: Shutdown Risk

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As we turn the page to a new month and a new quarter, the focus shifts from monetary policy at the Federal Reserve to political brinksmanship on Capitol Hill and at the White House. The U.S. government’s fiscal year ends on Tuesday, and Washington appears to be barreling toward a government shutdown with no agreement in place. 

This introduces two threats for markets. First, a shutdown could cause a government data blackout, delaying the release of crucial economic data that investors rely on, including Friday’s jobs report. (In past shutdowns, most government agencies that compile economic data suspend their operations.) A shutdown could also have macroeconomic consequences.

Hundreds of thousands of federal workers deemed nonessential would be furloughed without pay, while government programs and discretionary spending would be paused. That could weigh on consumer spending, disrupt services, and hurt both business and consumer confidence.

Despite the near-term volatility a shutdown can create, it’s important to remember that such events have historically had a fleeting impact on the broader economy. Once the political gridlock is resolved, markets often regain their footing and resume a positive trajectory.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

• September Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Fedspeak: New York Fed President John Williams will participate in a moderated discussion at a Rochester Institute of Technology event. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will participate in a policy panel alongside the Bank of England’s David Ramsden and European Central Bank’s Philip Lane at a concert in Frankfurt. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will have a moderated conversation with the CEO of Delta Air Lines followed by Q&A.
• Earnings: Carnival (CCL)

Tuesday

• July FHFA House Price Index: This is a broad measure of single-family house prices released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. 
• September Chicago Business Barometer: The barometer provides information on U.S. economic activity and business conditions, consisting of seven activity indicators and three buying policy indicators. 
• August Job Openings: A key measure of business demand for labor is the number of job openings, since reducing openings is easier and preferable to layoffs. 
• September Conference Board Consumer Confidence: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on job availability and the state of the labor market. 
• September Dallas Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: This is the Dallas Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Fedspeak: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will give a keynote speech at the Bank of Finland’s International Monetary Policy Conference. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated discussion at the regional bank’s 2025 Midwest Agriculture Conference. Dallas Fed President will participate in a moderated conversation at the regional Fed’s Survey Participants’ Appreciation Reception
• Earnings: Lamb Weston (LW), Nike (NKE), Paychex (PAYX)

Wednesday

• September ADP Employment Report: This survey, usually released a day or two before the official government jobs report, offers insight into private sector employment trends.
•  September ISM Manufacturing PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across the manufacturing sector feel about the business environment. 
• August Construction Spending: Construction data is a leading indicator of business activity. 
• September Wards Total Vehicle Sales: Cars are a big ticket item for consumers, so underlying vehicle sales trends can help shine a light on demand for durable goods.
• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Earnings:  Conagra Brands (CAG)

Thursday

• September Challenger Job Cuts: The firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas tracks the number of layoff announcements each month by sector. 
• August Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators.
• Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits.
• Fedspeak: Logan will participate in a moderated discussion at the University of Texas’ Evolving Energy and Policy Landscape Conference.

Friday

• September Employment Situation Summary: This monthly blockbuster release from the Labor Department gives a comprehensive look at employment, wages, and hours worked in the previous month.
•  September S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment. 
• September ISM Services PMI: This index from the Institute for Supply Management tracks how purchasing managers across different services industries feel about the business environment.
• Fedspeak: Williams will give keynote remarks at the Klaas Knot Farewell Symposium in Amsterdam.

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