Week Ahead on Wall Street: Back to Fundamentals

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

Compared to the high drama of last week’s Federal Reserve meeting, this week may look like a big ol’ nothingburger. But a more measured pace will return our focus to corporate developments and shifting fundamentals, and even a quiet week has the potential to shake things up in the markets. 

In the wake of the Fed’s interest rate cut, a variety of data on business conditions, construction, and consumer spending can help investors analyse the macro backdrop. 

And now that the central banks’ communication blackout period is over, we will also have commentary from Fed officials to look forward to. Any info on how they view the economy and balance of risks will be of particular interest.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

• August Chicago Fed National Activity Index: This is a monthly index put together that incorporates 85 indicators from four categories: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories.
• Fedspeak: New York Fed President John Williams will speak in a panel hosted by The European Money and Finance Forum. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will discuss the economic and monetary policy outlook, followed by moderated Q&A. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will host an event at the Cleveland Fed. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak at a Howard County Chamber event.

Tuesday

• September Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Philadelphia Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook. 
• September S&P Global US PMIs: These indexes track how purchasing managers across different industries feel about the business environment. 
• September Richmond Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Richmond Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook. 
• September Richmond Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Richmond Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Fedspeak: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will discuss the economic outlook on the Macro Musings podcast.
• Earnings: AutoZone (AZO), Micron Technology (MU)

Wednesday

• August New Home Sales: While only a minority of home transactions in any given month come from new constructions, these home prices tend to be more cyclical and give insight into developing trends.
• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Fedspeak: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will deliver a speech on the economic outlook, followed by a moderated discussion and Q&A.
• Earnings: Cintas (CTAS)

Thursday

• August Wholesale Inventories and Sales: Wholesalers often operate as an intermediary between manufacturers and retailers, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain. 
• August Wholesale and Retail Inventories: Wholesalers and retailers often operate as intermediaries for the sale of manufactured products, serving as a key part of the goods supply chain. 
• 2Q GDP Third Estimate: The primary measure of economic activity in the United States, which is measured as total expenditure on a country’s goods and services.
• August Factory and Durable Goods Orders: These metrics give insight into underlying trends for leading cyclical indicators. 
• August Existing Home Sales: Most home transactions in any given month tend to come from the existing market, and as a result set the tone for the broader housing market. 
• September Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: The Kansas City Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook
• Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits.
• Fedspeak: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated discussion on the economy and central bank at Crain’s Power Breakfast. Williams will give welcoming remarks at the fourth annual International Roles of the U.S. Dollar conference. Fed Governor Michael Barr will discuss bank stress testing and possible reforms at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, followed by Q&A. Daly will discuss the economic outlook and other topics at the 2025 Western Bankers forum.
• ‘Earnings: Accenture (ACN), Costco (COST), Jabil (JBL), CarMax (KMX)

Friday

• August Personal Income and Spending: These numbers give insight into how Americans are doing, which is important since consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic growth in the United States. 
• August Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index: The Fed targets this inflation measure for its price stability mandate and believes PCE to be the best measure of consumers’ spending habits. 
• September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory. 
• September Kansas City Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity: The Kansas City Fed’s survey of services executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook.
• Fedspeak: Barkin will discuss the economic outlook in a fireside chat, followed by moderated Q&A. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will participate in a moderated discussion at the Financial Markets Quality Conference.

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