Week Ahead on Wall Street: Inflation, Meet Tariff

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The focus narrows this week. 

With earnings season slowing to a trickle, one thing will dominate the conversation: inflation.

The main events will be the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. CPI, the most widely followed measure of inflation,  measures the average change in prices paid by consumers. The PPI, on the other hand, offers a look at inflation pressures earlier in the pipeline by tracking the change in wholesale prices – the prices charged by U.S. manufacturers and other producers. 

With investors sensitive to potential tariff impacts, these won’t be routine data releases. Given how much Federal Reserve officials have highlighted uncertainty around tariffs, lower-than-expected readings would likely cement market expectations for an interest rate cut in September. On the other hand, a surprisingly high number could throw a rate cut in doubt.

Economic and Earnings Calendar

Monday

• No notable events are scheduled.

Tuesday

• July NFIB Small Business Optimism: This measures how small business owners feel about current and future economic conditions. 
• July Consumer Price Index: The CPI is one of the most popular indicators for tracking consumer price trends and is a marquee release for market watchers. 
• July Treasury Statement: This summarizes the U.S. federal government budget by tracking government revenues and expenditures.
• Fedspeak: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will discuss the economy at a Health Management Academy event.
• Earnings: Cardinal Health (CAH)

Wednesday

• Weekly Mortgage Applications: Mortgage activity gives insight on demand conditions in the housing market.
• Fedspeak: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will discuss the economy at a Greenville Chamber of Commerce event. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will speak at a monetary policy luncheon hosted by the Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will discuss the economic outlook at a luncheon hosted by the regional bank.
• Earnings: Cisco (CSCO)

Thursday

• July Producer Price Index: The PPI tracks price trends that producers face and is down significantly from its peak earlier in the cycle.
• Weekly Jobless Claims: This high frequency labor market data gives insight into filings for unemployment benefits. Initial jobless claims have remained mostly steady, while continuing claims have increased of late.
• Fedspeak: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will have a webinar conversation with the president of the National Association for Business Economics.
• Earnings: Applied Materials (AMAT), Amcor PLC (AMCR), Deere & Company (DE), Tapestry (TPR)

Friday

• July Retail Sales: This measures spending at retail stores and is a key indicator of consumer demand. 
• August Empire State Manufacturing Activity: The New York Fed’s survey of manufacturing executives in the region on business conditions and their outlook. 
• July Import/Export Price Indexes: These indexes track the changes in the prices of nonmilitary goods and services traded between the U.S. and the rest of the world. 
• July Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: The industrial sector accounts for much of the cyclical swings in economic activity. 
• August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: How consumers feel about economic conditions affect their spending habits. This survey places a particular focus on inflation and its trajectory.

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