{"id":37727,"date":"2025-09-15T11:04:10","date_gmt":"2025-09-15T03:04:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sofi.hk\/?p=37727"},"modified":"2025-09-15T11:08:39","modified_gmt":"2025-09-15T03:08:39","slug":"%e8%a7%a3%e7%a2%bc%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%ef%bc%9a%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e6%95%b8%e6%93%9a%e6%8c%81%e7%ba%8c%e6%83%a1%e5%8c%96","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sofi.hk\/zh-hant\/%e8%a7%a3%e7%a2%bc%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%ef%bc%9a%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e6%95%b8%e6%93%9a%e6%8c%81%e7%ba%8c%e6%83%a1%e5%8c%96\/","title":{"rendered":"\u89e3\u78bc\u5e02\u5834\uff1a\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u6301\u7e8c\u60e1\u5316"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"yoast-reading-time__wrapper\"><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__icon\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" data-icon=\"clock\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" style=\"display:inline-block;vertical-align:-0.1em\" role=\"img\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" stroke-width=\"2\" d=\"M12 8v4l3 3m6-3a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__spacer\" style=\"display:inline-block;width:1em\"><\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__descriptive-text\">Estimated reading time:  <\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__reading-time\">1<\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__time-unit\"> minute<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u52a0\u901f\u75b2\u8edf\"><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u52a0\u901f\u75b2\u8edf<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u91d1\u878d\u5a92\u9ad4\u7d93\u5e38\u5f37\u8abf\uff1a\u80a1\u5e02\u4e26\u4e0d\u7b49\u540c\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u8d70\u52e2\u672a\u5fc5\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d88\u606f\u540c\u6b65\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u6578\u64da\u8868\u73fe\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u6f32\uff1b\u82e5\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u5f37\u52c1\uff0c\u80a1\u5e02\u53cd\u800c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f46\u80a1\u5e02\u4e5f\u4e26\u975e\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b8c\u5168\u7121\u95dc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4ee5\u6700\u65b0\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u5b83\u5411\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u2014\u2014\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u767c\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\u7684\u4fe1\u865f\uff1a\u7576\u524d\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u5f8c\u52c1\u4e0d\u7e7c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e0a\u9031\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6578\u64da\u986f\u793a\uff0c8\u6708\u4efd\u50c5\u589e\u52a022,000\u500b\u8077\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u768475,000\u500b\uff0c\u4ea6\u9060\u5c11\u65bc2024\u5e74\u5e95\u81f32025\u5e74\u521d\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u4e09\u500b\u6708\u5e73\u5747\u8077\u4f4d\u589e\u9577\u6578\u5b57\u5df2\u964d\u81f329,000\u500b\uff0c\u8f03\u4eca\u5e74\u521d\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u66f4\u4ee4\u4eba\u6182\u616e\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u52de\u5de5\u7d71\u8a08\u5c40\uff08BLS\uff09\u5c076\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u8077\u4f4d\u589e\u9577\u6578\u5b57\u5f9e\u539f\u672c\u768414,000\u500b\u4e0b\u8abf\u81f3\u6de8\u6e1b\u5c1113,000\u500b\u3002\u9019\u662f\u81ea2020\u5e7412\u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u9996\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u8077\u4f4d\u6de8\u6d41\u5931\uff0c\u4ea6\u6b63\u5f0f\u7d42\u7d50\u4e86\u6709\u8a18\u9304\u4ee5\u4f86\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9577\u7684\u5c31\u696d\u64f4\u5f35\u5468\u671f\u3002\u9023\u540c\u8fd1\u671f\u5176\u4ed6\u4fee\u6b63\uff0c5\u6708\u81f37\u6708\u671f\u9593\u7684\u8077\u4f4d\u589e\u9577\u7e3d\u6578\u8f03\u6700\u521d\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86274,000\u500b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5982\u6b64\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u5411\u4e0b\u4fee\u6b63\u901a\u5e38\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u8f49\u6298\u9ede\uff0c\u4ee4\u4eba\u64d4\u5fc3\u90a3\u500b\u53ef\u6015\u7684\u300cr\u300d\u5b57\u2014\u2014\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\uff08recession\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u7d93\u958b\u59cb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u8077\u4f4d\u6578\u5b57\u4fee\u6b63\u5f80\u5f80\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0b\u884c\u6642\u8f49\u8ca0\"><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>\u8077\u4f4d\u6578\u5b57\u4fee\u6b63\u5f80\u5f80\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0b\u884c\u6642\u8f49\u8ca0<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-1 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"931\" height=\"582\" data-id=\"37717\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sofi.hk\/app\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-37717\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u4f55\u8b02-\u6536\u652f\u5e73\u8861-\u589e\u9577\"><strong><strong>\u4f55\u8b02\u300c\u6536\u652f\u5e73\u8861\u300d\u589e\u9577\uff1f<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e00\u5982\u5f80\u5e38\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u8b80\u8077\u4f4d\u589e\u9577\u5927\u5e45\u653e\u7de9\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u6b63\u5f15\u767c\u4e00\u5834\u7d30\u7dfb\u5165\u5fae\u7684\u8faf\u8ad6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8207\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5b98\u54e1\u7684\u8faf\u8ad6\u4e3b\u8981\u570d\u7e5e\u300c\u6536\u652f\u5e73\u8861\u300d\u5c31\u696d\u7387\uff08breakeven employment rate\uff09\u9019\u4e00\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u9019\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u662f\u6307\u7d93\u6fdf\u6bcf\u6708\u9700\u8981\u5275\u9020\u591a\u5c11\u8077\u4f4d\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u7dad\u6301\u5931\u696d\u7387\u7a69\u5b9a\uff1b\u6b64\u6578\u5b57\u8003\u616e\u4e86\u9069\u9f61\u5de5\u4f5c\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4eba\u5011\u9032\u5165\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c07\u5176\u60f3\u50cf\u70ba\u7dad\u6301\u98db\u6a5f\u98db\u884c\u4e0d\u81f4\u4e0b\u589c\u6240\u9700\u7684\u6700\u5c0f\u5347\u529b\u3002\u82e5\u8077\u4f4d\u589e\u9577\u8d85\u904e\u6b64\u300c\u6536\u652f\u5e73\u8861\u300d\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u50be\u5411\u4e0b\u964d\uff1b\u82e5\u4f4e\u65bc\u6b64\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u5247\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.stlouisfed.org\/on-the-economy\/2025\/apr\/breakeven-employment-growth-simple-useful-benchmark\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u65e9\u57284\u6708\uff0c\u8056\u8def\u6613\u65af\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6<\/a>&nbsp;\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u300c\u6536\u652f\u5e73\u8861\u300d\u901f\u7387\u70ba\u6bcf\u6708\u8d85\u904e150,000\u500b\u8077\u4f4d\uff0c\u4f46<a href=\"https:\/\/www.stlouisfed.org\/on-the-economy\/2025\/aug\/lower-immigration-projections-mean-lower-breakeven-employment-growth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">8\u6708\u4e0b\u65ec\u7684\u4e00\u9805\u5206\u6790<\/a>&nbsp;\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u300c\u6536\u652f\u5e73\u8861\u300d\u8077\u4f4d\u5275\u9020\u6c34\u5e73\u5df2\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5927\u7d04\u8655\u65bc\u6bcf\u670832,000\u81f382,000\u500b\u8077\u4f4d\u7684\u5340\u9593\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6b64\u91cd\u65b0\u8a55\u4f30\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u9a45\u52d5\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u662f\u79fb\u6c11\u6e1b\u5c11\u5c0e\u81f4\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u4f9b\u61c9\u6025\u5287\u6536\u7e2e\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u79fb\u6c11\u9650\u5236\u6536\u7dca\uff0c\u9032\u5165\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5de5\u4eba\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u8457\u7d93\u6fdf\u6bcf\u6708\u9700\u8981\u5275\u9020\u7684\u8077\u4f4d\u4e5f\u76f8\u61c9\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0c\u65b9\u80fd\u7dad\u6301\u5931\u696d\u7387\u7a69\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5be6\u969b\u6578\u64da\u652f\u6301\u9019\u4e00\u89c0\u9ede\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u8fd1\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u7d93\u6fdf\u5275\u9020\u7684\u8077\u4f4d\u76f8\u5c0d\u8f03\u5c11\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u50c5\u5f9e4.1%\u4e0a\u5347\u81f34.3%\u3002\u5728\u4e0a\u4e00\u500b\u5546\u696d\u5468\u671f\u4e2d\uff0c\u7576\u5931\u696d\u7387\u8655\u65bc\u985e\u4f3c\u6c34\u5e73\u6642\uff0c\u6bcf\u6708\u8077\u4f4d\u589e\u9577\u70ba150,000\u81f3200,000\u500b\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8981\u627e\u5230\u5982\u6b64\u4f4e\u7684\u4e09\u500b\u6708\u8077\u4f4d\u589e\u9577\u6578\u5b57\uff08\u75ab\u60c5\u6642\u671f\u9664\u5916\uff09\uff0c\u9700\u56de\u6eaf\u81f32010\u5e74\u3002\u7576\u6642\u5931\u696d\u7387<em>\u8d85\u904e9%<\/em>\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u5254\u9664\u75ab\u60c5\u56e0\u7d20\u5f8c\u8077\u4f4d\u589e\u9577\u52752010\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u65b0\u4f4e\"><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>\u5254\u9664\u75ab\u60c5\u56e0\u7d20\u5f8c\u8077\u4f4d\u589e\u9577\u52752010\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u65b0\u4f4e<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-gallery has-nested-images columns-default is-cropped wp-block-gallery-2 is-layout-flex wp-block-gallery-is-layout-flex\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"931\" height=\"581\" data-id=\"37720\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sofi.hk\/app\/uploads\/2025\/09\/image-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-37720\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u63db\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u82e5\u300c\u6536\u652f\u5e73\u8861\u300d\u901f\u7387\u6c92\u6709\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u770b\u5230\u5931\u696d\u7387\u66f4\u6025\u5287\u5730\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u4e26\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u8457\u6211\u5011\u7121\u9700\u64d4\u6182\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u5c07\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u9700\u6c42\u8207\u4f9b\u61c9\u63cf\u8ff0\u70ba\u8655\u65bc\u4e00\u7a2e\u300c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sofi.com\/article\/investment-strategy\/august-2025-market-lookback\/#:~:text=curious%2520kind%2520of%2520balance\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u5947\u7279\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u72c0\u614b<\/a>\u300d\uff0c\u504f\u4f4e\u5c31\u662f\u504f\u4f4e\u3002\u800c\u4e14\u98a8\u96aa\u6b63\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u4f46\u9019\u78ba\u5be6\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u672a\u5fc5\u9700\u8981\u6025\u65bc\u4e0b\u8abf\u57fa\u6e96\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u3002\u7562\u7adf\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5b98\u54e1\u53ef\u4ee5\u8b93\u4f01\u696d\u66f4\u9858\u610f\u501f\u8cb8\u548c\u64f4\u5f35\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u5011\u7121\u6cd5\u589e\u52a0\u6c42\u8077\u4eba\u6578\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" 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