{"id":31010,"date":"2024-09-17T10:01:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-17T02:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sofi.hk\/?p=31010"},"modified":"2024-09-17T19:44:29","modified_gmt":"2024-09-17T11:44:29","slug":"2024%e5%b9%b48%e6%9c%88%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%e5%9b%9e%e9%a1%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sofi.hk\/zh-hant\/2024%e5%b9%b48%e6%9c%88%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%e5%9b%9e%e9%a1%a7\/","title":{"rendered":"2024\u5e748\u6708\u5e02\u5834\u56de\u9867"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Estimated reading time:&nbsp;3&nbsp;minutes<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5728\u6708\u5e95\u7684\u6578\u64da\u6aa2\u8996\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u516b\u6708\u53c8\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5927\u591a\u6578\u6642\u9593\u8868\u73fe\u7a4d\u6975\u7684\u6708\u4efd\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u8a72\u6708\u521d\u986f\u8457\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u58d3\u529b\u30028 \u6708 5 \u65e5\uff0c\u7576\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6b77\u4e00\u6ce2\u8ce3\u58d3\u548c\u907f\u96aa\u8f49\u79fb\u6642\uff0cVIX \u6307\u6578\u98c6\u5347\u81f3\u8d85\u904e 65 \u7684\u76e4\u4e2d\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002\u65e5\u672c\u80a1\u5e02\u53d7\u5230\u56b4\u91cd\u6253\u64ca\uff0c\u7591\u4f3c\u65e5\u5713\u5957\u5229\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5e73\u5009\u5c0e\u81f4\u9019\u4e00\u6ce2\u52d5\u8569\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5c0d\u907f\u96aa\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u570b\u5eab\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u6025\u5287\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c2\u5e74\u671f\u548c10\u5e74\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\u5012\u639b\u73fe\u8c61\u50c5\u5728\u77ed\u66ab\u53cd\u8f49\u5f8c\u518d\u5ea6\u7dad\u6301\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u64d4\u6182\u6d88\u6563\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u53cd\u5f48\uff0c\u6708\u5e95\u518d\u6b21\u4ee5\u63a5\u8fd1\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u9ad8\u4f4d\u7d50\u675f\u3002\u76e1\u7ba1\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5b98\u54e1\u5927\u591a\u5c0d\u5e02\u5834\u52d5\u8569\u7f6e\u4e4b\u4e0d\u7406\uff0c\u4f46\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u6307\u51fa\u201c\u662f\u6642\u5019\u8abf\u6574\u653f\u7b56\u4e86\u201d\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u5b8f\u89c0\"><strong>\u5b8f\u89c0<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>7 \u6708\u4efd\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3 4.3%\uff0c\u8d85\u51fa\u6240\u6709\u9810\u4f30\uff0c\u9023\u7e8c\u7b2c\u56db\u500b\u6708\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u8868\u793a\u5c07\u5f9e\u901a\u8139\u8f49\u5411\u95dc\u6ce8\u52de\u5de5\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4e26\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u4e5d\u6708\u6703\u8b70\u4e0a\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u96d6\u7136 7 \u6708\u4efdCPI\u4e3b\u8981\u8207\u5171\u8b58\u9810\u6e2c\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u6708\u589e\u9577\u7387\u70ba 0.2%\uff0c\u5e74\u589e\u9577\u7387\u70ba 2.9%\uff0c\u4f46PPI\u589e\u9577\u7387\u8f03\u4f4e\uff0c\u6708\u589e\u9577\u7387\u70ba 0.1%\uff0c\u5e74\u589e\u9577\u7387\u70ba 2.2%\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u65e5\u5143\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\u958b\u59cb\u6642\u70ba 150 \u65e5\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u65bc\u8207\u5229\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c8 \u6708 5 \u65e5\u6700\u9ad8\u5347\u81f3 142 \u65e5\u5143\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u5728\u6708\u5e95\u8dcc\u81f3 147 \u65e5\u5143\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>7 \u6708\u4efd\u539f\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u5f9e\u6bcf\u6876 82 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e0b\u8dcc\u81f3\u6bcf\u6876 78 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u88c2\u89e3\u50f9\u5dee(crack spreads)\u4fdd\u6301\u5728\u5e74\u5167\u4f4e\u4f4d\u9644\u8fd1\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u80a1\u7968\"><strong>\u80a1\u7968<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>VIX \u6307\u6578\u5728 8 \u6708 5 \u65e5\u76e4\u4e2d\u9ad8\u4f4d\u9054\u5230 65.7\uff0c\u662f\u81ea 2020 \u5e74 3 \u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u9632\u79a6\u6027\u677f\u584a\u5728 8 \u6708\u4efd\u5e36\u9818\u8d70\u52e2\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u53d7\u5230\u8cc7\u91d1\u6d41\u5411\u8f03\u4f4e\u98a8\u96aa\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u652f\u6490\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u5927\u578b\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u512a\u65bc\u5c0f\u578b\u80a1 3.9 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2024 \u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u76c8\u5229\u9810\u8a08\u589e\u9577 13.0%\uff0c\u8d85\u51fa\u9810\u671f\u7387\u70ba 4.7%\uff0c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u6a19\u666e 500 \u6210\u5206\u80a1\u5df2\u516c\u5e03\u4e86\u696d\u7e3e\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2024 \u5e74 S&amp;P 500 \u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u76c8\u5229\u9810\u4f30\u5f9e 7 \u6708\u7684 244 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e0b\u964d\u81f3 8 \u6708\u7684 242 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u81ea\u4e0a\u800c\u4e0b\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u9810\u4f30\u4fdd\u6301\u5728 246 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\"><strong>\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2 \u5e74\u548c 10 \u5e74\u671f\u570b\u5eab\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5206\u5225\u5728\u6708\u521d\u70ba 4.27% \u548c 4.05%\uff0c\u5728 8 \u6708 5 \u65e5\u5e02\u5834\u58d3\u529b\u671f\u9593\u66b4\u8dcc\u81f3 3.65% \u548c 3.67%\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u5728 3.93% \u6536\u76e4\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2y10y \u6536\u76ca\u7387\u66f2\u7dda\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u5728\u6708\u521d\u7684\u52d5\u8569\u4e2d\u77ed\u66ab\u9000\u51fa\u53cd\u8f49\uff0c\u4f46\u6708\u5e95\u6642\u4ee5\u4e0d\u5230 1 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u5012\u639b\u6536\u5c3e\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u6295\u8cc7\u7d1a\u4fe1\u7528\u5229\u5dee\u5728\u6708\u521d\u4e00\u5ea6\u64f4\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u5230\u6708\u5e95\u6642\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u56de\u5230\u4e86\u6708\u521d\uff08\u6295\u8cc7\u7d1a\uff09\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff08\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1400\" height=\"870\" class=\"wp-image-30995\" style=\"width: 1400px;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sofi.hk\/app\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image1-4.png\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u91cb\u653e\u71b1\u9580\u4ea4\u6613\"><strong>\u91cb\u653e\u71b1\u9580\u4ea4\u6613<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8aaa\u516b\u6708\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u5c31\u71b1\u9b27\u8d77\u4f86\u662f\u8f15\u63cf\u6de1\u5beb\u3002\u5e7e\u4e4e\u7acb\u523b\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u958b\u59cb\u5c0d\u806f\u5132\u5c407\u670831\u65e5\u6703\u8b70\u7684\u591a\u534a\u9df9\u6d3e\u7acb\u5834\u7522\u751f\u7591\u616e\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4e03\u6708\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a\u65b0\u589e\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c97\u4f4d\u5c11\u65bc\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u5f9e4.1\uff05\u4e0a\u5347\u81f34.3\uff05\uff08\u9ad8\u65bc\u6240\u6709\u9810\u6e2c\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5e02\u5834\u5728\u90a3\u500b\u661f\u671f\u4e94\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4f46\u9694\u5468\u4e00\u6642\u5e02\u5834\u906d\u53d7\u4e86\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\u4e9e\u6d32\u5e02\u5834\u906d\u53d7\u91cd\u64ca\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u6210\u70ba\u4e3b\u8981\u53d7\u5bb3\u8005\uff1a\u65e5\u672c\u80a1\u5e02\u55ae\u65e5\u4e0b\u8dcc12\uff05\uff0c\u800c\u65e5\u5143\u5c0d\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u8ca8\u5e63\u4e5f\u51fa\u73fe\u4e86\u986f\u8457\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002\u5118\u7ba1VIX\u5728\u76e4\u4e2d\u9ad8\u905465\uff0c\u81ea2020\u5e743\u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u9ad8\uff0c\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5e45\u5ea6\u8f03\u5c0f\uff0c\u50c5\u70ba3\uff05\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7531\u65bc\u4ee4\u4eba\u5931\u671b\u7684\u6578\u64da\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e26\u4e0d\u4ee4\u4eba\u610f\u5916\uff0c\u4f46\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u7a81\u7136\u53cd\u61c9\u7a0b\u5ea6\u78ba\u5be6\u51fa\u4e4e\u610f\u6599\u3002\u65e5\u5713<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sofi.com\/article\/market-news\/whats-going-on-in-japans-financial-system\/\">\u5229\u5dee\u4ea4\u6613<\/a>\u548c\u77ed\u671f\u6ce2\u52d5\u7387\u4ea4\u6613\uff08\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u62bc\u6ce8\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5982\u77ed\u671fVIX\u671f\u8ca8\uff09\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7f6a\u9b41\u798d\u9996\uff0c\u5c0d\u8584\u5f31\u7684\u5c31\u696d\u6578\u64da\u6700\u8ca0\u9762\u53cd\u61c9\u5f15\u767c\u4e86\u4e00\u9023\u4e32\u7684\u629b\u552e\u884c\u70ba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1400\" height=\"638\" class=\"wp-image-30998\" style=\"width: 1400px;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sofi.hk\/app\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image2-1.png\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd1\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u5f8c\uff0c\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u5927\u591a\u6062\u5fa9\u5230\u52d5\u8569\u524d\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5c31\u597d\u50cf\u9019\u4e00\u5207\u5f9e\u672a\u767c\u751f\u904e\u3002\u4f46\u5c0e\u81f4\u9019\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u7d93\u6d88\u5931\uff1f\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u6b64\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u4ef2\u590f\u806f\u5132\u4e4b\u5922\"><strong>\u4ef2\u590f\u806f\u5132\u4e4b\u5922<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u8106\u5f31\u9ede\u662f\u5c0e\u81f4\u9019\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u958b\u7aef\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff1a\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u3002\u5118\u7ba14.3\uff05\u7684\u5931\u696d\u7387\u672c\u8eab\u4e26\u4e0d\u4ee4\u4eba\u64d4\u6182\uff0c\u4f46\u5df2\u7d93\u9ad8\u65bc19\u4f4dFOMC\u5b98\u54e1\u4e2d\u670916\u4f4d\u9810\u671f\u5e74\u5e95\u6642\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u6eef\u5f8c\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u7dca\u7e2e\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6240\u6709\u5f8c\u679c\u53ef\u80fd\u5c1a\u672a\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u7684\uff1a\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u9577\u671f\u548c\u53ef\u8b8a\u6eef\u5f8c\u6548\u61c9\u3002\u9019\u610f\u5473\u8457\u672a\u4f86\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u5931\u696d\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0a\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5b98\u54e1\u5df2\u7d93\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u76e1\u7ba1\u4ed6\u5011\u5c0d\u5176\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u6301\u66f4\u591a\u61f7\u7591\u614b\u5ea6\u3002\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u5728\u4f4d\u65bcJackson Hole\u7684\u582a\u85a9\u65af\u57ce(Kansas City)\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5e74\u5ea6\u7d93\u6fdf\u7814\u8a0e\u6703\u4e0a\u767c\u8868\u6f14\u8b1b\u6642\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u4e0d\u662f\u4f86\u81ea\u88c1\u54e1\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u5c0b\u627e\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u4eba\u589e\u52a0\u800c\u62db\u8058\u6e1b\u5c11\u3002\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u8f03\u70ba\u51b7\u975c\u7684\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u662f\u7cdf\u7cd5\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1400\" height=\"876\" class=\"wp-image-31001\" style=\"width: 1400px;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.sofi.hk\/app\/uploads\/2024\/09\/image3.png\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u8a0a\u606f\u660e\u986f\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u8f49\u8b8a\uff0c\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u6307\u51fa\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u201c\u4e0d\u5c0b\u6c42\u53ca\u4e0d\u6b61\u8fce\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u689d\u4ef6\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u51b7\u537b\u201d\u3002\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5df2\u7d93\u6697\u793a\u5c07\u5728\u4e5d\u6708\u958b\u59cb\u9032\u884c\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u963b\u6b62\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u653e\u7de9\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u554f\u984c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u80fd\uff0c\u516b\u6708\u521d\u767c\u751f\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u80fd\u767c\u751f\u7684\u524d\u5146\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\"><strong>\u514d\u8cac\u8072\u660e<\/strong><br>SoFi Securities (Hong Kong) Limited\u53ca\u5176\u806f\u5c6c\u516c\u53f8(\u2018SoFi 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