{"id":28514,"date":"2024-06-19T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-19T06:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sofi.hk\/?p=28514"},"modified":"2024-06-19T16:05:28","modified_gmt":"2024-06-19T08:05:28","slug":"2024-%e5%b9%b4-5-%e6%9c%88%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%e5%9b%9e%e9%a1%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sofi.hk\/zh-hant\/2024-%e5%b9%b4-5-%e6%9c%88%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%e5%9b%9e%e9%a1%a7\/","title":{"rendered":"2024 \u5e74 5 \u6708\u5e02\u5834\u56de\u9867"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"yoast-reading-time__wrapper\"><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__icon\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" data-icon=\"clock\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" style=\"display:inline-block;vertical-align:-0.1em\" role=\"img\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" stroke-width=\"2\" d=\"M12 8v4l3 3m6-3a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__spacer\" style=\"display:inline-block;width:1em\"><\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__descriptive-text\">Estimated reading time:  <\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__reading-time\">1<\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__time-unit\"> minute<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6a02\u89c0\u60c5\u7dd2\u63a8\u52d5\u80a1\u5e02\u5728\u4e94\u6708\u5275\u4e0b\u6b77\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002\u98a8\u96aa\u60c5\u7dd2\u5728\u4e94\u6708\u5927\u5e45\u56de\u5347\uff0c\u80a1\u6307\u5275\u4e0b\u6b77\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u597d\u58de\u53c3\u534a\uff0c\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\u986f\u793a\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u696d\u4eba\u6578\u4f4e\u65bc\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u800c\u4e00\u4e9b\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\u4f9d\u7136\u71be\u71b1\u3002\u6700\u65b0\u4e00\u6279\u7684\u8ca1\u52d9\u5831\u8868\u7e7c\u7e8c\u6700\u8fd1\u5f37\u52c1\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u5229\u6f64\u7387\u5c24\u5176\u8d85\u51fa\u9810\u671f\u3002\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5b98\u54e1\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4e0d\u6025\u65bc\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u4e26\u9700\u8981\u770b\u5230\u901a\u8139\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u56de\u843d\u624d\u6703\u8003\u616e\u3002\u53d7\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u548c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u8a55\u8ad6\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u570b\u50b5\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u6ce2\u52d5\u8f03\u5927\uff0c\u6700\u521d\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u672c\u6708\u4e0b\u534a\u6708\u56de\u5347\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\"><strong>\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u806f\u90a6\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08FOMC\uff09\u5c07\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u76ee\u6a19\u5340\u9593\u7dad\u6301\u5728 5.25%-5.50%\uff0c\u4e26\u5ba3\u5e03\u5c07\u653e\u6162\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u7e2e\u6e1b\u7684\u6b65\u4f10\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5b98\u54e1\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u9700\u8981\u770b\u5230\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u7684\u7a69\u5b9a\u901a\u8139\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u624d\u80fd\u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\u964d\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>4 \u6708\u65b0\u589e 17.5 \u842c\u975e\u8fb2\u5c31\u696d\uff0c\u986f\u8457\u4f4e\u65bc 24 \u842c\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u5f9e 3.8% \u4e0a\u5347\u5230 3.9%\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>4 \u6708\u7684\u751f\u7522\u8005\u50f9\u683c\u6307\u6578\uff08PPI\uff09\u74b0\u6bd4\u4e0a\u6f32 0.5%\uff0c\u540c\u6bd4\u4e0a\u6f32 2.2%\uff0c\u51fa\u4e4e\u610f\u6599\u5730\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u50f9\u683c\u6307\u6578\uff08CPI\uff09\u5247\u74b0\u6bd4\u4e0a\u6f32 0.3%\uff0c\u540c\u6bd4\u4e0a\u6f32 3.4%\uff0c\u7565\u4f4e\u65bc\u9810\u671f\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>3 \u6708\u7684 ISM \u88fd\u9020\u696d\u63a1\u8cfc\u7d93\u7406\u6307\u6578\uff08PMI\uff09\u70ba 50.3\uff0c\u8d85\u51fa\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u800c\u670d\u52d9\u696d PMI \u70ba 51.4\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u9810\u671f\u3002\u5169\u500b\u6307\u6578\u5747\u9ad8\u65bc 50 \u7684\u4e2d\u6027\u9580\u6abb\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u623f\u5c4b\u5efa\u7bc9\u5546\u60c5\u7dd2\u5f9e 51 \u4e0b\u6ed1\u81f3 45\uff08\u4f4e\u65bc\u4e2d\u6027\u503c 50\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7f8e\u5143\u6307\u6578\u8ffd\u8e2a\u7f8e\u5143\u5c0d\u4e00\u7c43\u5b50\u4e3b\u8981\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u5f37\u5f31\uff0c5\u6708\u5f9e 106.2 \u4e0b\u964d\u5230 104.7\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u80a1\u7968\"><strong>\u80a1\u7968<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u53d7\u5927\u578b\u79d1\u6280\u516c\u53f8\u63a8\u52d5\uff0c\u7d0d\u65af\u9054\u514b\u6307\u6578\u5728\u4e94\u6708\u56de\u5831\u7387\u9054\u5230 7.0%\uff0c\u662f\u81ea 11 \u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u6708\u4efd\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>5 \u6708\u6a19\u666e 500 \u6307\u6578\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u7684 2024 \u5e74\u6bcf\u80a1\u6536\u76ca\uff08EPS\uff09\u9810\u671f\u5f9e 243 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3 245 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u81ea\u4e0a\u800c\u4e0b\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u9810\u671f\u5f9e 246 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3 247 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6210\u9577\u80a1\u8868\u73fe\u512a\u65bc\u50f9\u503c\u80a1 2.7 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u80a1\u7968\u843d\u5f8c\u65bc\u6a19\u666e 500 \u6307\u6578 4.4 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\uff0c\u626d\u8f49\u4e86\u4e0a\u6708\u8d85\u8d8a 4.5 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u53d7\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u677f\u584a\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u4e00\u500b\u9304\u5f97\u8ca0\u56de\u5831\u7684\u677f\u584a\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\"><strong>\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u570b\u50b5\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u5728\u4e94\u6708\u4e2d\u65ec\u4e0b\u8dcc 30-40 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u672c\u6708\u4e0b\u534a\u6708\u4e0a\u5347\u4e86 15-20 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4fe1\u7528\u50f9\u5dee\uff08Credit spread\uff09\u5728\u4e94\u6708\u57fa\u672c\u4fdd\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u5169\u5e74\u4f86\u7684\u4f4e\u9ede\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7531\u65bc\u671f\u9650\u8f03\u77ed (lower duration)\uff08\u5373\u5c0d\u5229\u7387\u8b8a\u52d5\u7684\u654f\u611f\u5ea6\uff09\uff0c\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u50b5\u5238\u8868\u73fe\u4e0d\u53ca\u6295\u8cc7\u7d1a\u50b5\u5238\u548c\u570b\u50b5\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u50b5\u52d9\u5230\u671f\"><strong>\u50b5\u52d9\u5230\u671f<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u6216\u5169\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u7d93\u5e38\u807d\u5230\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5f37\u52c1\u8868\u73fe\u4ee4\u4eba\u9a5a\u8a1d\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u7d93\u6b77\u4e86\u6578\u5341\u5e74\u4f86\u6700\u6fc0\u9032\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u5468\u671f\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4e0d\u50c5\u6c92\u6709\u51fa\u73fe\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u9084\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u65bc\u8da8\u52e2\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e2d\u7684\u67d0\u4e9b\u90e8\u5206\u4ecd\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u4ee4\u4eba\u64d4\u6182\u7684\u8de1\u8c61\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>5 \u6708 14 \u65e5\uff0c\u7d10\u7d04\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u9280\u884c\u767c\u5e03\u4e86\u300a\u5bb6\u5ead\u50b5\u52d9\u548c\u4fe1\u8cb8\u5b63\u5ea6\u5831\u544a\u300b\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u6c92\u6709\u91cd\u5927\u7684\u7206\u70b8\u6027\u65b0\u805e\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u986f\u793a\u4e86\u6700\u8fd1\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u50b5\u52d9\u548c\u62d6\u6b20\u8da8\u52e2\u7684\u5ef6\u7e8c\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5728\u4fe1\u7528\u5361\u548c\u6c7d\u8eca\u8cb8\u6b3e\u65b9\u9762\u7279\u5225\u660e\u986f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-us.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXdRoWcfkNIiVXDiNa1qL2dndoWBaaCslOSbXe3CwsxEN9bFIK1bBzRiVheDvMC0KNf6V6SnJytfHIC4QUshQYJDgtri3SaUMbLW_WaPJSDS9QxUDVUB6nB0nAFU1lVGGifXnPGuj-23QYilAnQO5sVqOvUj?key=LqLfY_-lQmT8QdoB6wy6uw\" style=\"width: 1200px;\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u4e9b\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u62d6\u6b20\u7387\u81ea 2021 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u57fa\u672c\u4e0d\u65b7\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u9054\u5230\u4e86 2011 \u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u8003\u616e\u5230\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u501f\u8cb8\u6210\u672c\u8207\u7576\u6642\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u9019\u4e26\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u4ee4\u4eba\u9a5a\u8a1d\uff0c\u4f46\u4ee4\u4eba\u9a5a\u8a1d\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4f4e\u65bc 4%\uff0c\u800c\u7576\u6642\u5927\u7d04\u70ba 9%\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7a69\u5065\u7684\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u5e6b\u52a9\u652f\u6490\u4e86\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u548c\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u4f46\u5373\u4f7f\u9019\u4e00\u8da8\u52e2\u4e5f\u5728\u9010\u6f38\u6539\u8b8a\u3002\u5982\u679c\u9019\u7a2e\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u964d\u6eab\u8f49\u8b8a\u70ba\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u88c1\u54e1\uff0c\u62d6\u6b20\u8da8\u52e2\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6f14\u8b8a\u6210\u66f4\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u984d\u5916\u4fe1\u8cb8\"><strong>\u984d\u5916\u4fe1\u8cb8<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5c0d\u9019\u4e9b\u6578\u64da\u53cd\u61c9\u6de1\u5b9a\uff0c\u5c0d\u6574\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u72c0\u6cc1\u4f9d\u7136\u6a02\u89c0\u30025 \u6708 21 \u65e5\uff0c\u6a19\u666e 500 \u6307\u6578\u5275\u4e0b 5,321 \u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9664\u4e86\u5275\u7d00\u9304\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u5916\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u80a1\u7968\u5f37\u52c1\u8868\u73fe\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u5728\u65bc\u6536\u76ca\u548c\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u96d9\u91cd\u6539\u5584\uff1a\u6a19\u666e 500 \u6307\u6578\u5728 5 \u6708\u4efd\u7684 5% 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