{"id":23715,"date":"2023-12-06T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-06T02:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.sofi.hk\/?p=23715"},"modified":"2023-12-06T15:17:30","modified_gmt":"2023-12-06T07:17:30","slug":"2023%e5%b9%b411%e6%9c%88%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%e5%9b%9e%e9%a1%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.sofi.hk\/zh-hant\/2023%e5%b9%b411%e6%9c%88%e5%b8%82%e5%a0%b4%e5%9b%9e%e9%a1%a7\/","title":{"rendered":"2023\u5e7411\u6708\u5e02\u5834\u56de\u9867"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"yoast-reading-time__wrapper\"><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__icon\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" data-icon=\"clock\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" style=\"display:inline-block;vertical-align:-0.1em\" role=\"img\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" stroke-width=\"2\" d=\"M12 8v4l3 3m6-3a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__spacer\" style=\"display:inline-block;width:1em\"><\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__descriptive-text\">Estimated reading time:  <\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__reading-time\">1<\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__time-unit\"> minute<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>11 \u6708\u4efd\uff0c\u70ba\u61c9\u5c0d\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u6301\u7e8c\u53d6\u5f97\u9032\u5c55\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u548c\u751f\u7522\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u800c\u52de\u52d5\u5e02\u5834\u7565\u6709\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u4f46\u6574\u9ad4\u4fdd\u6301\u5f48\u6027\u3002 \u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5c07\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u7a69\u5b9a\u5728 5.50% \u7684\u4e0a\u9650\uff0c\u591a\u4f4d\u5b98\u54e1\u8a8d\u70ba\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u8655\u65bc\u8db3\u5920\u9650\u5236\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u8db3\u4ee5\u8b93\u901a\u8139\u9010\u6b65\u56de\u5230\u76ee\u6a19\u6c34\u5e73\u3002 \u7531\u65bc\u964d\u606f\u9810\u671f\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u56e0\u6240\u6709\u6578\u64da\u800c\u66b4\u8dcc\uff0c\u4ee4\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u5834\u548c\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6b77\u4e86\u6578\u5341\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u6700\u597d\u7684\u6708\u4efd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\"><strong>\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63GDP\u7d93\u5b63\u7bc0\u6027\u8abf\u6574\u5f8c\u7684\u5e74\u5ea6\u589e\u9577\u7387\u75314.9%\u4e0a\u8abf\u81f35.2%\uff0c\u800c\u9996\u6b21\u516c\u4f48\u7684GDI\u4f30\u7b97\u70ba1.5%\uff0c\u5169\u7a2e\u6307\u6a19\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u5206\u6b67\u6301\u7e8c\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5c07\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u76ee\u6a19\u5229\u7387\u7dad\u6301\u57285.25%-5.50%\u7684\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\uff0c\u591a\u4f4d\u5b98\u54e1\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u76f8\u4fe1\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u8655\u65bc\u8db3\u5920\u7dca\u7e2e\u7684\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u8db3\u4ee5\u5c07\u901a\u8139\u7387\u964d\u81f32%\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>10 \u6708\u65b0\u589e\u5c31\u696d 15 \u842c\u500b\uff0c\u800c\u524d\u5169\u500b\u6708\u6de8\u4fee\u6b63\u6578\u70ba\u8ca010.1 \u842c\u500b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>10 \u6708\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578 (CPI) \u548c\u751f\u7522\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578 (PPI) \u7684\u6574\u9ad4\u548c\u6838\u5fc3\u6307\u6a19\u4ee5\u53ca\u540c\u6bd4\u548c\u74b0\u6bd4\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5747\u51fa\u4e4e\u610f\u6599\u4e4b\u5916\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4f4f\u5b85\u5efa\u7bc9\u5546\u4fe1\u5fc3\u6307\u6578\u8dcc\u81f334\uff0c\u70ba2022\u5e7412\u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc50\u7684\u4e2d\u6027\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>11\u6708\u4efd\u5927\u591a\u6578\u4e3b\u8981\u8ca8\u5e63\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\u5347\u503c\u3002 \u53d7\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u986f\u8457\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u63a8\u52d5\uff0c\u9ec3\u91d1\u4e5f\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u6b63\u9762\u7684\u6210\u679c\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u5834\"><strong>\u80a1\u7968\u5e02\u5834<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>11 \u6708\u4efd\uff0c\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u7684\u6a19\u666e 500 \u6307\u6578 2023 \u5e74\u6bcf\u80a1\u6536\u76ca\u9810\u671f\u5f9e\u4e4b\u524d\u7684 220 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u8abf\u81f3 221 \u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u800c\u81ea\u4e0a\u800c\u4e0b\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b(top-down strategist) \u9810\u671f\u5247\u5f9e 219 \u7f8e\u5143\u4e0a\u8abf\u81f3 222 \u7f8e\u5143\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6a19\u666e 500 \u6307\u6578\u7d50\u675f\u4e86\u4e09\u500b\u6708\u7684\u9023\u7e8c\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5275\u4e0b\u4e86\u81ea 2022 \u5e74 7 \u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u597d\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u56de\u5831\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u96d6\u7136\u5c0f\u578b\u50f9\u503c\u80a1\u548c\u589e\u9577\u80a1\u5728 11 \u6708\u8868\u73fe\u76f8\u4f3c\uff0c\u4f46\u5927\u578b\u50f9\u503c\u80a1\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u512a\u65bc\u589e\u9577\u80a1 3.4 \u500b\u767e\u5206\u9ede\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u53d7\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0b\u8dcc6.2%\u7684\u62d6\u7d2f\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u677f\u584a\u662f11\u6708\u4efd\u552f\u4e00\u51fa\u73fe\u5012\u9000\u7684\u7522\u696d\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\"><strong>\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>11\u6708\u4efd10\u5e74\u671f\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u4e0b\u964d60\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u52752008\u5e7412\u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u5927\u55ae\u6708\u8dcc\u5e45\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7f8e\u570b\u6295\u8cc7\u7b49\u7d1a\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\u51fa\u73fe\u4e86\u81ea 1980 \u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u597d\u7684\u6708\u4efd\uff0c\u56de\u5831\u7387\u70ba 4.5%\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u6708\u521d\u70ba 466 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u5f8c\uff0c\u9ad8\u6536\u76ca\u50b5\u5238\u5229\u5dee\u964d\u81f3 409 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u70ba 2022 \u5e74 5 \u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u7d93\u6fdf\u8edf\u8457\u9678\u7684\u4f38\u5ef6\"><strong>\u7d93\u6fdf\u8edf\u8457\u9678\u7684\u4f38\u5ef6<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5927\u591a\u6578\u901a\u8cec\u6578\u64da\u6307\u6a19\u5df2\u7d93\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u500b\u597d\u6d88\u606f\u3002 \u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u548c\u5c31\u696d\u80fd\u5920\u4fdd\u6301\u5f48\u6027\u662f\u66f4\u597d\u6d88\u606f\u3002 \u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u901a\u8cec\u4e0d\u50c5\u5448\u4e0b\u964d\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5728\u5176\u7d93\u6fdf\u9810\u6e2c\u6458\u8981 (SEP) \u4e2d 9 \u6708\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f4e\u65bc\u592e\u884c\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u56db\u6b21 SEP \u4e2d\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7531\u65bc\u5716\u8868\u4e0a\u7684\u7dda\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u7a69\u6b65\u4e0b\u964d\u800c\u7c21\u55ae\u5730\u5047\u8a2d\u8da8\u52e2\u5c07\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u53ef\u9760\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u7406\u7531\u8a8d\u70ba\u5b83\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002 \u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u7d10\u7d04\u806f\u5132\u9280\u884c\u7684\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u58d3\u529b\u6307\u6578(Global Supply Chain Pressure Index\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31GSCPI) \u6301\u7e8c\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4e26\u8655\u65bc\u81f3\u5c11\u81ea 1997 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4e8c\u624b\u8eca\u6279\u767c\u50f9\u683c\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u79df\u91d1\u8da8\u52e2\u4f4e\u8ff7\u4f3c\u4e4e\u7d42\u65bc\u5728\u5b98\u65b9\u6578\u64da\u4e2d\u986f\u73fe\u51fa\u4f86\u3002 \u9019\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u96d6\u7136\u4e26\u4e0d\u5168\u9762\uff0c\u4f46\u986f\u793a\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u5373\u5c07\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5287\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u9019\u4e9b\u4e8b\u614b\u767c\u5c55\u4f7f\u4eba\u5011\u5c0d\u8edf\u8457\u9678\u7684\u547c\u8072\u65e5\u76ca\u5171\u8b58\uff0c\u4f46\u98a8\u96aa\u4ecd\u7136\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u8edf\u8457\u9678\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4f4e\u65bc\u5171\u8b58\u6240\u6697\u793a\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u53ef\u4ee5\u80af\u5b9a\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u8457\u9678\u7684\u8dd1\u9053\u6b63\u5728\u986f\u73fe\u3002 \u6211\u5011\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u6703\u77e5\u9053\u4e8b\u60c5\u9032\u5c55\u5982\u4f55\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-name-s-bond-\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\"><strong>The Name\u2019s Bond\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5c0d\u901a\u8cec\u7387\u964d\u81f3\u76ee\u6a19\u6c34\u5e73\u800c\u4e0d\u9020\u6210\u5931\u696d\u6216\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u524d\u666f\u7684\u8208\u596e\uff0c\u7121\u7591\u63a8\u52d5\u4e86\u4e3b\u8981\u8cc7\u7522\u985e\u5225\u7684\u5f37\u52c1\u8868\u73fe\uff1a\u6a19\u666e500 \u6307\u6578\u5275\u4e0b1990 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7b2c\u4e5d\u500b\u8868\u73fe\u6700\u4f73\u6708\u4efd\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\u6295\u8cc7\u7d1a\u5225\u7684\u56de\u5831\u7387\u90544.5% \u66f4\u540d\u5217\u524d\u8305\u4e26\u70ba\u540c\u671f\u6700\u597d\u7684\u6708\u4efd\u3002 \u9020\u6210\u9019\u4e00\u8d70\u52e2\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c5\u5e74\u671f\u53ca\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u5b73\u606f\u5229\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u4e8659-61\u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u800c\u5e74\u671f\u8f03\u77ed\u7684\u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u5e45\u5ea6\u5247\u8f03\u5c0f\u3002 \u570b\u50b5\u5b73\u606f\u66f2\u7dda\u7684\u9019\u7a2e\u8b8a\u5316\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u725b\u5e02\u5e73\u7de9\uff0c\u5b83\u5f80\u5f80\u5c0d\u50b5\u5238\u6709\u5229\u3002 \u5341\u4e00\u6708\u4e5f\u4e0d\u4f8b\u5916\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f9e\u50b3\u7d71\u7d93\u6fdf\u89d2\u5ea6\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u672c\u6708\u80a1\u5e02\u8868\u73fe\u5982\u6b64\u5f37\u52c1\u78ba\u5be6\u6709\u9ede\u4ee4\u4eba\u610f\u5916\u3002 \u7576\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\u5229\u7387\u9650\u5236\u5e02\u5834\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u4e26\u64d4\u5fc3\u672a\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u75b2\u8edf\u6642\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u4e0b\u964d\u3002 \u53cd\u904e\u4f86\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u548c\u4f01\u696d\u76c8\u5229\u75b2\u5f31\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u7d66\u80a1\u50f9\u5e36\u4f86\u58d3\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5118\u7ba1\u6211\u5011\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u5df2\u7d93\u770b\u5230\u4e00\u4e9b\u6578\u64da\u8868\u73fe\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u4f46\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u9084\u6c92\u6709\u770b\u5230\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u64d4\u6182\u3002 \u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6b63\u5728\u4ee5\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u4f46\u9700\u7559\u610f\u6bcf\u6b21\u786c\u8457\u9678\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u90fd\u50cf\u662f\u8edf\u8457\u9678\u3002 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